Defense & Military
US Air Force Plans Temporary Fighter Dip Before Growth by 2035
USAF fighter fleet to shrink until 2028 due to retirements and F-35 delays, then expand to 1,558 jets by 2035 with advanced tech upgrades.
USAF Fighter Fleet Hits a Dip Before a Climb
The United States Air-Forces is navigating a period of calculated contraction. According to a new fighter roadmap submitted to Congress, the total number of fighter aircraft is set to decline over the next couple of years before beginning a steady climb toward ambitious long-term goals. This strategic dip is the result of a complex balancing act involving the retirement of aging platforms, the slower-than-expected integration of the F-35 Lightning II, and persistent modernization delays. The plan reveals a force in transition, deliberately shedding older, less survivable aircraft to pave the way for a more advanced, capable, and ultimately larger fleet by the mid-2030s.
This roadmap, completed in August 2025, provides the clearest public picture of the Air Force’s modernization strategy. It introduces a new metric, the “Combat Coded Total Aircraft Inventory” (CCTAI), which offers a more comprehensive count of all fighters in the USAF’s possession. The numbers are straightforward, the total fighter inventory is projected to shrink from 1,271 aircraft in fiscal year 2026 to a low of 1,215 in 2028. Following this trough, the numbers are expected to rebound, reaching 1,304 by 2030 and aiming for a robust 1,558 jets by 2035. This temporary reduction is not a sign of weakness, but rather a necessary phase in a sweeping overhaul designed to prepare the service for future high-end conflicts.
At the heart of this transition is the F-35A Lightning II, the cornerstone of the Air Force’s future fighter force. However, its fleet growth is projected to be modest in the near term. This deliberate pacing is influenced by several factors, most notably significant delays in the critical Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) upgrade. This reality forces a recalibration of expectations, where the focus shifts from rapid mass acquisition to ensuring that the aircraft entering service are equipped with the most advanced and combat-ready technology available.
The F-35 Conundrum: Slower Growth and Tech Hurdles
The integration of the F-35A into the fleet is proceeding at a more measured pace than previously anticipated. The roadmap projects a net increase of only 39 aircraft in fiscal year 2027, followed by an even smaller addition of 18 jets in 2028. These figures are a far cry from the 72-per-year acquisition rate some experts had suggested was necessary for rapid modernization. The Air Force has clarified that these numbers reflect the “desired overall USAF possessed inventory on the ramp” and are not direct procurement targets. This indicates a strategic choice to prioritize capability over sheer numbers in the short term.
A primary driver of this slowdown is the persistent delay in the F-35’s Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) upgrade. TR-3 is not a minor update, it provides the essential computing power and memory required for the jet’s advanced Block 4 capabilities. Originally scheduled for completion in April 2023, the TR-3 program has been plagued by software development issues. These problems led the Pentagon to temporarily halt the acceptance of new F-35s. While deliveries have since resumed, they are of a “truncated” version, pending the readiness of the full combat-capable software, which may not be fully resolved until 2026.
Air Force officials have framed the slower procurement rates in the 2010s as a deliberate strategy. The decision was made to wait for the more capable Block 4 version of the F-35, thereby avoiding the immense cost and logistical complexity of retrofitting hundreds of earlier models. The report warns that older F-35s equipped with TR-2 “will fall behind,” and this capability gap will eventually “drive eventual replacement of those aircraft due to low utility for the USAF, compared to newer-block fighter aircraft.” This long-term view prioritizes a future fleet of highly advanced, standardized aircraft over a larger but technologically fragmented force.
The Air Force stated that the projected F-35 fleet size figures “do not represent procurement targets but are the desired overall USAF possessed inventory on the ramp.”
A Changing of the Guard: Legacy Retirements and the Rise of the Eagle II
The temporary decline in the overall fighter count is largely driven by the aggressive retirement of legacy aircraft. The most prominent casualty is the A-10 Thunderbolt II. The Air Force plans to divest its entire remaining fleet of 162 A-10s by the end of fiscal year 2026 or 2027, a significant acceleration from previous timelines that saw it serving until the end of the decade. This move is intended to free up critical funding and personnel for next-generation systems better suited for contested environments where the A-10’s lack of stealth would severely limit its survivability.
The F-15 fleet is also undergoing a major transformation. The venerable F-15C/D Eagle fleet will be cut in half, shrinking from 42 aircraft in 2026 to just 21 by 2029, with the remaining jets relegated to a homeland defense role. The F-15E Strike Eagle will see an even sharper reduction, with its inventory falling from 133 aircraft in 2026 to 78 in 2028. These retirements make way for its successor, the F-15EX Eagle II. The F-15EX fleet is set to grow substantially, expanding from 27 aircraft in 2026 to 111 by 2030, with budget proposals aiming to increase the total planned fleet size even further.
Meanwhile, other key fleets are being managed to bridge the gap to the future force. The F-22 Raptor, the Air Force’s premier air superiority fighter, will see its 32 oldest, non-combat-coded models retired, maintaining a core, modernized fleet of 134 aircraft through the 2030s. The versatile F-16 Fighting Falcon fleet is projected to remain stable at 488 aircraft through 2030, serving as the workhorse of the fighter force during this transitional period. The roadmap also notes that uncrewed Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs) are not included in these counts and will be “additive” to the inventory once they are introduced, promising a future force structure that blends crewed and uncrewed platforms.
Conclusion: A Strategic Pause for a Stronger Future
The U.S. Air Force’s fighter roadmap outlines a period of deliberate and strategic realignment. The short-term dip in total fighter numbers and the slowed intake of F-35s are not signs of a program in crisis, but rather calculated decisions driven by technological hurdles and a long-term vision. By accelerating the retirement of legacy platforms like the A-10 and older F-15s, the service is freeing up resources to invest in a more survivable and capable future force, centered around the advanced Block 4 F-35, the F-15EX, and the next-generation F-47 fighter.
Achieving the ambitious goal of 1,558 fighters by 2035 will require sustained investment and successfully navigating the technical challenges of programs like TR-3. The future air combat landscape will likely involve a sophisticated mix of 5th and 6th-generation crewed aircraft operating alongside autonomous Collaborative Combat Aircraft. This transitional phase, while marked by a temporary reduction in fleet size, is a critical step in building a more resilient and technologically superior Air Force capable of meeting the security challenges of the coming decades.
FAQ
Question: Why is the U.S. Air Force reducing its total number of fighter jets?
Answer: The reduction is a temporary and strategic measure. The USAF is retiring older, less survivable aircraft like the A-10 and some F-15 models more quickly than it is acquiring new ones like the F-35. This is to free up funds and resources for modernization and to build a more advanced fleet in the long run. The total number is projected to start increasing after 2028.
Question: What is causing the slowdown in F-35 deliveries?
Answer: The primary cause is a delay in the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) upgrade. TR-3 provides the necessary computing power for the F-35’s advanced Block 4 capabilities. Due to software development problems with TR-3, the Pentagon has slowed its acceptance of new jets to avoid costly retrofits later.
Question: What is the long-term goal for the USAF fighter fleet?
Answer: The U.S. Air Force aims to grow its fighter force to 1,558 jets by the year 2035. This goal would require maximizing F-35 production and increasing F-15EX acquisitions, contingent on significant funding increases.
Sources
Photo Credit: Wright-Patterson AFB
Defense & Military
NSPA Issues RFP for NATO Next Generation Rotorcraft Program
NSPA formally launches the NGRC Concept Design RFP, with four manufacturers competing for a six-nation helicopter replacement program.
The NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) has formally issued a Request for Proposal for the Concept Design phase of the Next Generation Rotorcraft Capability program, advancing a six-nation effort to replace aging medium multi-role Helicopters fleets.
Announced in a press release on August 10, 2026, the procurement targets a service entry between 2035 and 2040. The NSPA is managing the process on behalf of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Four pre-qualified Manufacturers will compete in this phase: Airbus Helicopters, Leonardo Helicopters, The Boeing Company, and Sikorsky.
Advancing the concept design phase
The Request for Proposal (RFP) officially opened on July 31, 2026, and requires the four bidders to submit their concept design proposals by August 31, 2027, at 12:00 Paris Time. Under the procurement guidelines, each manufacturer can propose a maximum of two concept design solutions.
Maxime Martinez, Principal Procurement Officer for the Next Generation Rotorcraft Capability (NGRC) Programme at NSPA, confirmed the launch of the new phase.
I am pleased to announce that the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) has launched the next phase of the Next Generation Rotorcraft Capability (NGRC) Programme: a formal Request for Proposals (RFP) to qualified bidders linked to the competition for the Concept Design phase of NGRC.
The NSPA is utilizing a procurement mechanism called Acquisition by Qualified Options. This framework allows the participating nations to evaluate digital trials within an in-house modeling and simulation environment before committing to physical prototypes. The agency plans to complete the bid evaluation process by the end of 2027, at which point it will deliver an evaluation summary report to the participating nations.
Industry positioning and proposals
The four pre-qualified bidders, selected following a Pre-Qualification Assessment that closed in October 2025, have already begun positioning their offerings for the multi-national replacement program.
In February 2026, Airbus Helicopters revealed two distinct concepts for the NGRC study. The European manufacturer is developing both a high-performance conventional helicopter and a high-speed compound rotorcraft that leverages technology from its Racer demonstrator program. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin company, announced in July 2026 that it would establish helicopter production facilities in Europe if the partner nations select its proposal.
The NSPA is encouraging broader industry participation through the primary bidders rather than direct submissions. Martinez stated that potential suppliers, technology providers, and industrial partners should engage directly with Airbus Helicopters, The Boeing Company, Leonardo Helicopters, or Sikorsky to contribute to the program.
AirPro News analysis
We view the NSPA decision to utilize the Acquisition by Qualified Options mechanism as a critical step in mitigating the technical and financial risks historically associated with clean-sheet rotorcraft development. By mandating digital trials in a simulated environment before advancing to physical prototypes, the participating nations can rigorously evaluate the aerodynamic and operational viability of complex designs, such as the compound concept proposed by Airbus Helicopters.
Sikorsky’s preemptive commitment to European production highlights the intense political and economic stakes of the NGRC program. With five European nations and Canada funding the development, North American bidders like Sikorsky and The Boeing Company will likely need to guarantee substantial industrial offsets and local manufacturing to remain competitive against indigenous European prime contractors like Airbus and Leonardo. The requirement for up to two concepts per bidder also provides the NSPA with a broad spectrum of conventional and advanced high-speed rotorcraft options to evaluate against the harmonized operational baseline.
Photo Credit: Airbus
Defense & Military
HAL and Safran Sign Aravalli Engine Co-Development Contract
HAL and Safran finalize the Aravalli engine contract via SAFHAL JV to power India’s IMRH and DBMRH helicopters by 2032-2033.
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and Safran Helicopter Engines have finalized a contract to co-develop the new-generation Aravalli engine, marking a definitive shift in Indian aerospace manufacturing from licensed production to indigenous propulsion design.
The agreement, signed on August 26, 2026, in Bengaluru, India, formalizes the design, development, manufacture, and lifecycle support of the engine through SAFHAL Helicopter Engines Pvt. Ltd. SAFHAL is a 50:50 joint venture between the two aerospace manufacturers. The Aravalli engine is slated to power India’s future 13-ton Indian Multi-Role Helicopter (IMRH) and its naval variant, the Deck-Based Multi-Role Helicopter (DBMRH).
Technical specifications and manufacturing
The Aravalli engine will operate in the 3,500 to 4,000 shaft horsepower (shp) class. Under the terms of the agreement, HAL will gain access to core engine technologies, including the high-pressure compressor, power turbine, and accessory gearbox. This technology transfer is designed to build domestic intellectual property and expertise in high-power engine design.
Manufacturing operations for the Aravalli program will be based at HAL’s facility in Tumakuru, Karnataka. Safran Helicopter Engines Chief Executive Officer Cédric Goubet noted the precedent set by the agreement in a press release issued by HAL.
“This is the first time Safran HE has taken up such a class of engine as co-development. The Aravalli engine programme represents a new chapter in the strategic relationship between France and India, combining the expertise of our teams to develop propulsion systems for future Indian rotorcraft.”
Development timeline and strategic shift
The final contract follows a multi-year negotiation and planning phase. HAL and Safran initially signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the project in July 2022, followed by detailed workshare discussions at Aero India in February 2023. The companies executed an airframer contract on August 30, 2024, to commence joint design work.
The design and development phase is targeted for completion between 2032 and 2033. Once operational, the IMRH platform is intended to replace the Indian Air Force’s aging fleet of Mil Mi-17 Helicopters. HAL Chairman and Managing Director Ravi K emphasized the domestic industrial impact of the program.
“The signing of this contract marks a significant step forward in India’s pursuit of self-reliance in aero-engine technologies. Through this collaborative programme with SAFHAL and Safran Helicopter Engines, we are creating a strong foundation for powering next-generation Indian helicopter platforms.”
AirPro News analysis
The Aravalli engine contract represents a critical maturation point for India’s defense aviation sector. Historically, Indian aerospace manufacturing has relied heavily on licensed production of foreign designs, which limits domestic engineering capability and intellectual property ownership. By securing a 50:50 co-development structure that includes core engine components like the high-pressure compressor and power turbine, we view this agreement as a foundational step toward true Propulsion independence for the Indian military. If the 2032 to 2033 development timeline holds, HAL will be positioned not just as an assembler, but as a primary original equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) for high-power rotorcraft engines.
Sources: Hindustan Aeronautics Limited
Photo Credit: Hindustan Aeronautics Limited
Defense & Military
Raytheon Wins $603M Contract for B-52H Radar Modernization
Raytheon secures $603M USAF contract to produce the AN/APQ-188 AESA radar for the B-52H fleet under the B-52 Radar Modernization Program.
This is a developing story. Information may change as official details are released.
Raytheon has secured a $603,000,000 sole-source contract from the U.S. Air Force (USAF) to produce and sustain the new AN/APQ-188 radar for the Boeing B-52H Stratofortress fleet, advancing a critical modernization effort despite the recent loss of the program’s primary test aircraft.
The U.S. Department of Defense announced the indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) contract on August 25, 2026, following the official award on August 21, 2026. The agreement establishes the ceiling value for the production phase of the B-52 Radar Modernization Program (RMP). The Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (AFLCMC) at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (FFO) in Ohio is the contracting activity, obligating $46,008,396 in fiscal 2026 aircraft procurement funds with the initial delivery order.
Upgrading the B-52 radar capabilities
The RMP replaces the bomber’s 1960s-era mechanically scanned AN/APQ-166 radar with the Raytheon AN/APQ-188, an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) system. The new Radar-Systems is a derivative of the AN/APG-79 used on the F/A-18 and forms a cornerstone of the broader B-52J upgrade package designed to keep the fleet operational into the 2050s.
According to the Department of Defense, Raytheon will perform the contract work across multiple facilities, including Forrest, Mississippi; El Segundo, California; McKinney, Texas; and Warner Robins, Georgia. The contract is expected to be completed by August 20, 2031.
Program continuity following testbed loss
The production contract award follows a major setback for the RMP during the flight testing phase. On June 15, 2026, the sole B-52 radar testbed aircraft crashed shortly after takeoff at Edwards Air Force Base (EDW) in California. The USAF confirmed the accident resulted in the deaths of all eight crew members on board, which included military personnel, government civilians, and contractors. The official cause of the accident remains under Investigation by the USAF.
Despite the loss of the initial testbed, military officials have confirmed the modernization program will proceed. According to reporting by DefenseScoop, Col. Spencer Turner, the B-52 System Program Manager, stated that the original acquisition strategy always included two test aircraft.
Turner confirmed that work on the second aircraft is actively underway at The Boeing Company facility in San Antonio, Texas. He noted that the service expects to “complete the full modification and put the full radar suite onto the aircraft this year and proceed with testing.” Following the June 15, 2026 accident, the active USAF fleet stands at 75 B-52H bombers.
AirPro News analysis
The decision to award a $603,000,000 production contract just two months after the loss of the primary testbed underscores the firm commitment of the USAF to the B-52J upgrade timeline. Because the AN/APQ-188 is heavily derived from an existing, mature AESA system, the service likely views the radar technology itself as low-risk, separating the radar’s production readiness from the ongoing investigation into the June 15 accident. We note that delaying the production contract until a second testbed completes flight trials would have likely pushed the B-52J initial operational capability timeline to the right, a delay the USAF appears unwilling to accept as it plans to operate the airframe for another three decades.
Sources: U.S. Department of Defense
Photo Credit: US Air Force
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