Defense & Military
US Air Force Plans Temporary Fighter Dip Before Growth by 2035
USAF fighter fleet to shrink until 2028 due to retirements and F-35 delays, then expand to 1,558 jets by 2035 with advanced tech upgrades.
The United States Air-Forces is navigating a period of calculated contraction. According to a new fighter roadmap submitted to Congress, the total number of fighter aircraft is set to decline over the next couple of years before beginning a steady climb toward ambitious long-term goals. This strategic dip is the result of a complex balancing act involving the retirement of aging platforms, the slower-than-expected integration of the F-35 Lightning II, and persistent modernization delays. The plan reveals a force in transition, deliberately shedding older, less survivable aircraft to pave the way for a more advanced, capable, and ultimately larger fleet by the mid-2030s.
This roadmap, completed in August 2025, provides the clearest public picture of the Air Force’s modernization strategy. It introduces a new metric, the “Combat Coded Total Aircraft Inventory” (CCTAI), which offers a more comprehensive count of all fighters in the USAF’s possession. The numbers are straightforward, the total fighter inventory is projected to shrink from 1,271 aircraft in fiscal year 2026 to a low of 1,215 in 2028. Following this trough, the numbers are expected to rebound, reaching 1,304 by 2030 and aiming for a robust 1,558 jets by 2035. This temporary reduction is not a sign of weakness, but rather a necessary phase in a sweeping overhaul designed to prepare the service for future high-end conflicts.
At the heart of this transition is the F-35A Lightning II, the cornerstone of the Air Force’s future fighter force. However, its fleet growth is projected to be modest in the near term. This deliberate pacing is influenced by several factors, most notably significant delays in the critical Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) upgrade. This reality forces a recalibration of expectations, where the focus shifts from rapid mass acquisition to ensuring that the aircraft entering service are equipped with the most advanced and combat-ready technology available.
The integration of the F-35A into the fleet is proceeding at a more measured pace than previously anticipated. The roadmap projects a net increase of only 39 aircraft in fiscal year 2027, followed by an even smaller addition of 18 jets in 2028. These figures are a far cry from the 72-per-year acquisition rate some experts had suggested was necessary for rapid modernization. The Air Force has clarified that these numbers reflect the “desired overall USAF possessed inventory on the ramp” and are not direct procurement targets. This indicates a strategic choice to prioritize capability over sheer numbers in the short term.
A primary driver of this slowdown is the persistent delay in the F-35’s Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) upgrade. TR-3 is not a minor update, it provides the essential computing power and memory required for the jet’s advanced Block 4 capabilities. Originally scheduled for completion in April 2023, the TR-3 program has been plagued by software development issues. These problems led the Pentagon to temporarily halt the acceptance of new F-35s. While deliveries have since resumed, they are of a “truncated” version, pending the readiness of the full combat-capable software, which may not be fully resolved until 2026.
Air Force officials have framed the slower procurement rates in the 2010s as a deliberate strategy. The decision was made to wait for the more capable Block 4 version of the F-35, thereby avoiding the immense cost and logistical complexity of retrofitting hundreds of earlier models. The report warns that older F-35s equipped with TR-2 “will fall behind,” and this capability gap will eventually “drive eventual replacement of those aircraft due to low utility for the USAF, compared to newer-block fighter aircraft.” This long-term view prioritizes a future fleet of highly advanced, standardized aircraft over a larger but technologically fragmented force.
The Air Force stated that the projected F-35 fleet size figures “do not represent procurement targets but are the desired overall USAF possessed inventory on the ramp.”
The temporary decline in the overall fighter count is largely driven by the aggressive retirement of legacy aircraft. The most prominent casualty is the A-10 Thunderbolt II. The Air Force plans to divest its entire remaining fleet of 162 A-10s by the end of fiscal year 2026 or 2027, a significant acceleration from previous timelines that saw it serving until the end of the decade. This move is intended to free up critical funding and personnel for next-generation systems better suited for contested environments where the A-10’s lack of stealth would severely limit its survivability.
The F-15 fleet is also undergoing a major transformation. The venerable F-15C/D Eagle fleet will be cut in half, shrinking from 42 aircraft in 2026 to just 21 by 2029, with the remaining jets relegated to a homeland defense role. The F-15E Strike Eagle will see an even sharper reduction, with its inventory falling from 133 aircraft in 2026 to 78 in 2028. These retirements make way for its successor, the F-15EX Eagle II. The F-15EX fleet is set to grow substantially, expanding from 27 aircraft in 2026 to 111 by 2030, with budget proposals aiming to increase the total planned fleet size even further. Meanwhile, other key fleets are being managed to bridge the gap to the future force. The F-22 Raptor, the Air Force’s premier air superiority fighter, will see its 32 oldest, non-combat-coded models retired, maintaining a core, modernized fleet of 134 aircraft through the 2030s. The versatile F-16 Fighting Falcon fleet is projected to remain stable at 488 aircraft through 2030, serving as the workhorse of the fighter force during this transitional period. The roadmap also notes that uncrewed Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs) are not included in these counts and will be “additive” to the inventory once they are introduced, promising a future force structure that blends crewed and uncrewed platforms.
The U.S. Air Force’s fighter roadmap outlines a period of deliberate and strategic realignment. The short-term dip in total fighter numbers and the slowed intake of F-35s are not signs of a program in crisis, but rather calculated decisions driven by technological hurdles and a long-term vision. By accelerating the retirement of legacy platforms like the A-10 and older F-15s, the service is freeing up resources to invest in a more survivable and capable future force, centered around the advanced Block 4 F-35, the F-15EX, and the next-generation F-47 fighter.
Achieving the ambitious goal of 1,558 fighters by 2035 will require sustained investment and successfully navigating the technical challenges of programs like TR-3. The future air combat landscape will likely involve a sophisticated mix of 5th and 6th-generation crewed aircraft operating alongside autonomous Collaborative Combat Aircraft. This transitional phase, while marked by a temporary reduction in fleet size, is a critical step in building a more resilient and technologically superior Air Force capable of meeting the security challenges of the coming decades.
Question: Why is the U.S. Air Force reducing its total number of fighter jets? Question: What is causing the slowdown in F-35 deliveries? Question: What is the long-term goal for the USAF fighter fleet?
USAF Fighter Fleet Hits a Dip Before a Climb
The F-35 Conundrum: Slower Growth and Tech Hurdles
A Changing of the Guard: Legacy Retirements and the Rise of the Eagle II
Conclusion: A Strategic Pause for a Stronger Future
FAQ
Answer: The reduction is a temporary and strategic measure. The USAF is retiring older, less survivable aircraft like the A-10 and some F-15 models more quickly than it is acquiring new ones like the F-35. This is to free up funds and resources for modernization and to build a more advanced fleet in the long run. The total number is projected to start increasing after 2028.
Answer: The primary cause is a delay in the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) upgrade. TR-3 provides the necessary computing power for the F-35’s advanced Block 4 capabilities. Due to software development problems with TR-3, the Pentagon has slowed its acceptance of new jets to avoid costly retrofits later.
Answer: The U.S. Air Force aims to grow its fighter force to 1,558 jets by the year 2035. This goal would require maximizing F-35 production and increasing F-15EX acquisitions, contingent on significant funding increases.
Sources
Photo Credit: Wright-Patterson AFB
Defense & Military
Embraer and Saab Unveil First Gripen E Fighter Produced in Brazil
Embraer and Saab unveiled the first Gripen E fighter jet assembled in Brazil, enhancing local defense manufacturing and fulfilling a 2014 contract.
This article is based on an official press release from Embraer.
On March 25, 2026, Embraer, Saab, and the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) marked a historic milestone in Latin American aerospace by unveiling the first Gripen E fighter jet manufactured on Brazilian soil. The rollout ceremony took place at Embraer’s industrial complex in Gavião Peixoto, São Paulo State, officially introducing the first supersonic fighter aircraft ever produced in the country.
According to the official press release, the event drew high-profile attendees, including Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Swedish Ambassador Karin Wallensteen, and top executives from both Embraer and Saab. The presentation of the aircraft highlights a successful technology transfer program and elevates Brazil into a select group of nations capable of manufacturing advanced combat aircraft.
The newly unveiled Gripen E is the result of a deeply integrated Brazilian and international supply chain. Embraer’s Gavião Peixoto facility handles the final assembly, utilizing aerostructures manufactured at Saab’s plant in São Bernardo do Campo. According to Embraer, 14 additional aircraft will be built using this exact production model under the current FAB contract.
Before being handed over to the customer, the newly assembled fighter will undergo rigorous functional and production flight testing. Once cleared, it will join the First Defense Group (1st GDA) stationed at the Anápolis Air Force Base.
Company leadership emphasized the broader implications of the rollout. In the press release, Bosco da Costa Junior, President and CEO of Embraer Defense & Security, highlighted the collaborative effort:
“…it symbolizes the strength of a partnership built on trust, long‑term vision, and true cooperation.”
The foundation for this manufacturing achievement was laid in 2014 when the Brazilian government signed a comprehensive contract with Saab. The agreement covers the development and production of 36 Gripen fighters, specifically 28 single-seat Gripen E models and eight two-seat Gripen F variants.
Deliveries from Sweden began in 2020, and the press release notes that at least 10 aircraft have already been handed over to the Brazilian Air Force. The Gripen fleet is already active; since February, the fighters have been executing Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) missions from the Anápolis Air Force Base to safeguard the airspace over Brazil’s federal district. Micael Johansson, President and CEO of Saab, noted the strategic importance of the local production capability, stating in the release:
“…developing, within Brazil, the capability to produce a high-tech supersonic fighter aircraft – fully capable of executing air superiority missions…”
We view the successful rollout of a domestically assembled Gripen E as a transformative moment for Embraer and the Brazilian defense sector. By proving it can assemble and integrate a sophisticated, network-centric supersonic fighter, Embraer significantly enhances its high-end military manufacturing portfolio. This capability not only fulfills Brazil’s immediate national security and airspace defense needs but also positions the Gavião Peixoto facility as a potential regional export and maintenance hub for South America. As neighboring countries evaluate their aging fighter fleets, we believe Brazil’s proven production line could offer Saab a strategic foothold for future Latin American sales.
Where was the first Brazilian-made Gripen E produced? How many Gripen fighters did Brazil order? How many more Gripens will be built in Brazil?
Production and Strategic Partnership
Details of the Gavião Peixoto Facility
Contract History and Operational Status
The 2014 Agreement
AirPro News analysis
Frequently Asked Questions
The aircraft was assembled at Embraer’s industrial complex in Gavião Peixoto, São Paulo State, using components including aerostructures from Saab’s facility in São Bernardo do Campo.
Under a 2014 contract, the Brazilian government ordered 36 Gripen fighters, comprising 28 single-seat Gripen E jets and 8 two-seat Gripen F jets.
According to the Embraer press release, 14 additional aircraft will be produced at the Gavião Peixoto facility under the current contract.
Sources
Photo Credit: Embraer
Defense & Military
Japan Expands F-35B Fleet with Delivery to Nyutabaru Air Base
Japan received three F-35B fighters at Nyutabaru Air Base, advancing its goal to deploy eight F-35Bs by fiscal year 2025 end.
In late March 2026, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) received three additional F-35B Lightning II stealth fighters at Nyutabaru Air Base in Miyazaki Prefecture. According to social media account @thef35 on X, the delivery highlights that procurement
“momentum continues” for the Japanese defense forces.
This latest arrival is a critical milestone. Based on defense research data, the delivery keeps Japan’s Ministry of Defense on track to meet its goal of deploying an initial batch of eight F-35Bs by the end of fiscal year 2025, which concludes on March 31, 2026. Japan received its first three F-35Bs on August 7, 2025, ferried by U.S. pilots, and officially activated the fleet for frontline service during a ceremony on February 7, 2026.
The integration of the Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft represents a historic shift in Japan’s defense posture. Defense reports indicate Japan plans to acquire 147 F-35s in total, 105 conventional F-35As and 42 F-35Bs, making it the largest operator of the fifth-generation fighter outside the United States.
While the F-35Bs are operated by the JASDF, defense analysts note their primary strategic value lies in their integration with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF).
To accommodate the STOVL aircraft, Japan has been modifying its two largest warships, the Izumo-class helicopter destroyers JS Izumo and JS Kaga. According to defense research, these modifications include reshaping the bows into a rectangular configuration and applying heat-resistant deck coatings capable of withstanding the F-35B’s powerful lift fan.
These upgrades were put to the test recently. In October 2024, a U.S. Navy and Marine Corps F-35B successfully conducted the first landing and takeoff trials on the modified JS Kaga off the coast of San Diego, California. This milestone effectively proved the vessel’s capability to operate as a light aircraft carrier, returning fixed-wing carrier aviation to the Japanese fleet for the first time since World War II.
Japan’s acquisition of the F-35B is widely viewed by defense researchers as a direct response to a tightening regional security environment, particularly the rapid military modernization and maritime maneuvers of China in the East and South China Seas. Nyutabaru Air Base is strategically located on Kyushu, Japan’s southernmost main island. Defense reports highlight that this positions the F-35B fleet in close proximity to the Nansei Islands chain, which stretches toward Taiwan and includes the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands. The STOVL capability allows Japan to project air power from the sea and operate from shorter, austere runways on remote islands.
Under its post-WWII pacifist constitution, Japan has historically maintained a strictly defensive military posture. The deployment of carrier-capable stealth fighters represents a shift toward what defense analysts term “active deterrence.” To navigate political sensitivities regarding offensive capabilities, the Japanese government officially classifies the Izumo and Kaga as “multi-functional destroyers” rather than aircraft carriers.
Despite the strategic momentum, the domestic rollout of the F-35B fleet has faced logistical and political hurdles.
According to defense research data, Japan is constructing a dedicated runway and training facility on the uninhabited island of Mageshima, located roughly 160 kilometers south of Nyutabaru. This facility is intended for F-35B Field Carrier Landing Practice (FCLP) and vertical landing drills.
However, the Mageshima project has been delayed until approximately 2029 or 2030. Consequently, routine vertical landing training must be conducted at Nyutabaru Airports in the interim. This temporary arrangement has triggered protests and concerns from local residents in Miyazaki Prefecture regarding severe aircraft noise pollution.
We view the successful delivery of these F-35Bs as more than just a national defense upgrade for Japan; it is a foundational step for allied interoperability in the Indo-Pacific. By operating the F-35B from modified destroyers, Japan ensures seamless integration with U.S. Navy and Marine Corps forces, as well as other allied operators like the United Kingdom and Italy. This opens the door for future cross-decking operations, where allied jets can land on Japanese ships and vice versa, creating a highly flexible, distributed maritime strike capability that complicates adversary planning in the region.
According to defense procurement data, Japan plans to acquire a total of 147 F-35 military-aircraft, consisting of 105 F-35A conventional takeoff variants and 42 F-35B STOVL variants.
The F-35B features Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) capabilities, allowing it to operate from amphibious assault ships, light aircraft carriers, and short or austere runways. To align with its post-WWII pacifist constitution, which limits offensive military capabilities, Japan officially classifies the modified Izumo-class vessels as “multi-functional destroyers” rather than aircraft carriers.
Sources: @thef35, Defense Research Report
Japan Expands F-35B Fleet with Latest Delivery to Nyutabaru Air Base
Strategic Shift: The “Lightning Carriers”
Vessel Modifications and Sea Trials
Geopolitical Drivers and Regional Defense
Defending the Nansei Islands
Domestic Challenges and Infrastructure
Local Impact at Nyutabaru
AirPro News analysis
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
How many F-35s is Japan buying?
What makes the F-35B different?
Why are Japan’s carrier-capable ships called destroyers?
Photo Credit: Lockheed Martin
Defense & Military
GKN Aerospace Delivers First Upgraded RM12 Engine to Swedish Armed Forces
GKN Aerospace delivers the first upgraded RM12 engine under a £32 million programme enhancing Sweden’s Gripen C/D fighter fleet performance and endurance.
This article is based on an official press release from GKN Aerospace.
GKN Aerospace has officially delivered the first upgraded RM12 engine to the Swedish Armed Forces, marking a critical milestone in the RM12 Enhanced Performance (RM12EP) programme. The delivery is part of a broader initiative to modernize the propulsion systems of Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen C/D fighter fleet.
According to a company press release, the RM12EP programme is valued at approximately £32 million (SEK 400 million). The initiative focuses on increasing engine thrust, extending operational endurance, and improving overall efficiency to ensure the legacy fighter aircraft remain highly capable in modern operational environments.
The successful handover of the first enhanced engine underscores GKN Aerospace’s nearly century-long partnership with the Swedish Air Force. As the type certificate holder for the RM12 engine, the company continues to play a central role in maintaining Sweden’s aerial defense readiness.
The RM12EP upgrade introduces significant technical improvements to the existing powerplants. In its official statement, GKN Aerospace noted that the enhancements include the installation of improved turbine hardware alongside updated engine control software. These modifications are specifically designed to boost engine thrust and extend the operating time of the engines, while simultaneously reducing life cycle costs for the Swedish Armed Forces.
The RM12EP programme was originally launched in 2019. It represents a long-term strategic effort led by GKN Aerospace to ensure that the Gripen C/D remains a cost-efficient and highly capable platform, even as newer generations of fighter aircraft enter service.
All upgrade work for the RM12 engines is being conducted at GKN Aerospace’s specialized facility in Trollhättan, Sweden. The company maintains comprehensive responsibility for the development, manufacturing, system support, and maintenance of both the RM12 engine, which powers the Gripen C/D, and the newer RM16 engine, which is utilized in the advanced Gripen E/F models.
The delivery of the first upgraded unit was achieved through extensive cross-functional collaboration. GKN Aerospace highlighted that the milestone involved coordination across engineering, production, quality assurance, procurement, and logistics departments. Furthermore, the project relies on key partnerships with industry leaders GE and Saab. Additional upgraded engines are scheduled to be delivered continuously to the Swedish Armed Forces in accordance with the programme’s planned timeline. “This first upgraded engine delivery represents an important step forward in enhancing the performance and endurance of the Gripen system. As type certificate holder for the Gripen C/D engine and with a partnership with the Swedish Air Force that spans nearly a century, we are proud to continue supporting Sweden’s operational capability and future readiness.”
We note that the delivery of the first upgraded RM12 engine highlights a broader trend in global defense procurement: the necessity of extending the operational lifespan of proven legacy platforms. While the Swedish Air Force is actively transitioning to the next-generation Gripen E/F, maintaining a robust and capable fleet of Gripen C/D aircraft remains essential for national security and regional stability.
By investing £32 million into the RM12EP programme, Sweden is ensuring a cost-effective bridge between aircraft generations. The enhancements to thrust and endurance not only improve the tactical capabilities of the Gripen C/D but also optimize maintenance schedules and reduce long-term operational costs. This dual-track approach, upgrading existing assets while procuring new ones, allows the Swedish Armed Forces to maintain a high state of readiness without compromising on technological advancement.
Furthermore, keeping the upgrade work localized at the Trollhättan facility secures domestic aerospace expertise and supply chain resilience. As geopolitical tensions in Europe remain a focal point for defense ministries, the ability to independently maintain and upgrade critical defense infrastructure is a significant strategic advantage for Sweden.
The RM12 Enhanced Performance (RM12EP) programme is an upgrade initiative led by GKN Aerospace for the Swedish Armed Forces. Launched in 2019, it aims to improve the thrust, endurance, and efficiency of the RM12 engines powering the JAS 39 Gripen C/D fighter aircraft.
According to GKN Aerospace, the programme is valued at approximately £32 million, which equates to SEK 400 million.
All development, manufacturing, and maintenance work for the RM12 engine upgrades is carried out at GKN Aerospace’s facility in Trollhättan, Sweden.
The RM12EP programme involves strong collaboration between GKN Aerospace and key industry partners, including GE and Saab.
The RM12EP Upgrade Programme
Technical Enhancements
Production and Partnerships
Strategic Implications for the Swedish Air Force
AirPro News analysis
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the RM12EP programme?
How much is the RM12EP programme worth?
Where is the upgrade work being performed?
Who are the key partners in this programme?
Sources
Photo Credit: GKN Aerospace
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