US Air Force Plans Temporary Fighter Dip Before Growth by 2035

USAF Fighter Fleet Hits a Dip Before a Climb

The United States Air-Forces is navigating a period of calculated contraction. According to a new fighter roadmap submitted to Congress, the total number of fighter aircraft is set to decline over the next couple of years before beginning a steady climb toward ambitious long-term goals. This strategic dip is the result of a complex balancing act involving the retirement of aging platforms, the slower-than-expected integration of the F-35 Lightning II, and persistent modernization delays. The plan reveals a force in transition, deliberately shedding older, less survivable aircraft to pave the way for a more advanced, capable, and ultimately larger fleet by the mid-2030s.

This roadmap, completed in August 2025, provides the clearest public picture of the Air Force’s modernization strategy. It introduces a new metric, the “Combat Coded Total Aircraft Inventory” (CCTAI), which offers a more comprehensive count of all fighters in the USAF’s possession. The numbers are straightforward, the total fighter inventory is projected to shrink from 1,271 aircraft in fiscal year 2026 to a low of 1,215 in 2028. Following this trough, the numbers are expected to rebound, reaching 1,304 by 2030 and aiming for a robust 1,558 jets by 2035. This temporary reduction is not a sign of weakness, but rather a necessary phase in a sweeping overhaul designed to prepare the service for future high-end conflicts.

At the heart of this transition is the F-35A Lightning II, the cornerstone of the Air Force’s future fighter force. However, its fleet growth is projected to be modest in the near term. This deliberate pacing is influenced by several factors, most notably significant delays in the critical Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) upgrade. This reality forces a recalibration of expectations, where the focus shifts from rapid mass acquisition to ensuring that the aircraft entering service are equipped with the most advanced and combat-ready technology available.

The F-35 Conundrum: Slower Growth and Tech Hurdles

The integration of the F-35A into the fleet is proceeding at a more measured pace than previously anticipated. The roadmap projects a net increase of only 39 aircraft in fiscal year 2027, followed by an even smaller addition of 18 jets in 2028. These figures are a far cry from the 72-per-year acquisition rate some experts had suggested was necessary for rapid modernization. The Air Force has clarified that these numbers reflect the “desired overall USAF possessed inventory on the ramp” and are not direct procurement targets. This indicates a strategic choice to prioritize capability over sheer numbers in the short term.

A primary driver of this slowdown is the persistent delay in the F-35’s Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) upgrade. TR-3 is not a minor update, it provides the essential computing power and memory required for the jet’s advanced Block 4 capabilities. Originally scheduled for completion in April 2023, the TR-3 program has been plagued by software development issues. These problems led the Pentagon to temporarily halt the acceptance of new F-35s. While deliveries have since resumed, they are of a “truncated” version, pending the readiness of the full combat-capable software, which may not be fully resolved until 2026.

Air Force officials have framed the slower procurement rates in the 2010s as a deliberate strategy. The decision was made to wait for the more capable Block 4 version of the F-35, thereby avoiding the immense cost and logistical complexity of retrofitting hundreds of earlier models. The report warns that older F-35s equipped with TR-2 “will fall behind,” and this capability gap will eventually “drive eventual replacement of those aircraft due to low utility for the USAF, compared to newer-block fighter aircraft.” This long-term view prioritizes a future fleet of highly advanced, standardized aircraft over a larger but technologically fragmented force.

The Air Force stated that the projected F-35 fleet size figures “do not represent procurement targets but are the desired overall USAF possessed inventory on the ramp.”

A Changing of the Guard: Legacy Retirements and the Rise of the Eagle II

The temporary decline in the overall fighter count is largely driven by the aggressive retirement of legacy aircraft. The most prominent casualty is the A-10 Thunderbolt II. The Air Force plans to divest its entire remaining fleet of 162 A-10s by the end of fiscal year 2026 or 2027, a significant acceleration from previous timelines that saw it serving until the end of the decade. This move is intended to free up critical funding and personnel for next-generation systems better suited for contested environments where the A-10’s lack of stealth would severely limit its survivability.

The F-15 fleet is also undergoing a major transformation. The venerable F-15C/D Eagle fleet will be cut in half, shrinking from 42 aircraft in 2026 to just 21 by 2029, with the remaining jets relegated to a homeland defense role. The F-15E Strike Eagle will see an even sharper reduction, with its inventory falling from 133 aircraft in 2026 to 78 in 2028. These retirements make way for its successor, the F-15EX Eagle II. The F-15EX fleet is set to grow substantially, expanding from 27 aircraft in 2026 to 111 by 2030, with budget proposals aiming to increase the total planned fleet size even further.

Meanwhile, other key fleets are being managed to bridge the gap to the future force. The F-22 Raptor, the Air Force’s premier air superiority fighter, will see its 32 oldest, non-combat-coded models retired, maintaining a core, modernized fleet of 134 aircraft through the 2030s. The versatile F-16 Fighting Falcon fleet is projected to remain stable at 488 aircraft through 2030, serving as the workhorse of the fighter force during this transitional period. The roadmap also notes that uncrewed Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs) are not included in these counts and will be “additive” to the inventory once they are introduced, promising a future force structure that blends crewed and uncrewed platforms.

Conclusion: A Strategic Pause for a Stronger Future

The U.S. Air Force’s fighter roadmap outlines a period of deliberate and strategic realignment. The short-term dip in total fighter numbers and the slowed intake of F-35s are not signs of a program in crisis, but rather calculated decisions driven by technological hurdles and a long-term vision. By accelerating the retirement of legacy platforms like the A-10 and older F-15s, the service is freeing up resources to invest in a more survivable and capable future force, centered around the advanced Block 4 F-35, the F-15EX, and the next-generation F-47 fighter.

Achieving the ambitious goal of 1,558 fighters by 2035 will require sustained investment and successfully navigating the technical challenges of programs like TR-3. The future air combat landscape will likely involve a sophisticated mix of 5th and 6th-generation crewed aircraft operating alongside autonomous Collaborative Combat Aircraft. This transitional phase, while marked by a temporary reduction in fleet size, is a critical step in building a more resilient and technologically superior Air Force capable of meeting the security challenges of the coming decades.

FAQ

Question: Why is the U.S. Air Force reducing its total number of fighter jets?
Answer: The reduction is a temporary and strategic measure. The USAF is retiring older, less survivable aircraft like the A-10 and some F-15 models more quickly than it is acquiring new ones like the F-35. This is to free up funds and resources for modernization and to build a more advanced fleet in the long run. The total number is projected to start increasing after 2028.

Question: What is causing the slowdown in F-35 deliveries?
Answer: The primary cause is a delay in the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) upgrade. TR-3 provides the necessary computing power for the F-35’s advanced Block 4 capabilities. Due to software development problems with TR-3, the Pentagon has slowed its acceptance of new jets to avoid costly retrofits later.

Question: What is the long-term goal for the USAF fighter fleet?
Answer: The U.S. Air Force aims to grow its fighter force to 1,558 jets by the year 2035. This goal would require maximizing F-35 production and increasing F-15EX acquisitions, contingent on significant funding increases.

Sources

• Defence Industry Europe