Calumet, Inc. and its subsidiary Montana Renewables, LLC announced a revised expansion plan on September 1, 2026, that will scale SAF production to 200 million gallons annually by 2028 for a fraction of the originally projected cost.

By repurposing existing refining equipment at the Great Falls, Montana facility, the company expects to complete the MaxSAF project with only $137 million in remaining capital. This abandons a previous $1.2 billion megaproject design. The pivot eliminates the need for third-party equity and minimizes debt while accelerating domestic sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) capacity.

Capital efficiency and Department of Energy funding

The original Phase 2 plan contemplated $1.2 billion in capital expenditure. The revised strategy captures 70 percent of the expected benefit for 15 percent of the cost. The financial restructuring involves an amended Loan Guarantee Agreement (LGA) with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

The original LGA was executed in January 2025, with a $782 million first tranche funded in February 2025 to recapitalize Montana Renewables, LLC (MRL). Under the amended agreement, the company will make a final draw of $34 million. This is significantly lower than the original $658 million Phase 2 DOE funding limit.

Calumet CEO Todd Borgmann stated the Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF) supported the adjustment to the loan agreement.

“Our amended agreement with the DOE facilitates innovative technology and domestic energy security at a fraction of the original cost. EDF’s willingness to right-size the LGA reflects its ongoing support for Montana’s largest agricultural investment. We look forward to our continued collaboration with the DOE on the success of this project,” Borgmann said.

Borgmann credited the company’s engineering and operational teams for developing a project that maximizes output while drastically reducing the required capital investment.

Production timeline and capacity milestones

The Great Falls facility currently operates at a 60 million gallon SAF run-rate following a spring 2026 constraint removal. A scheduled turnaround in the fourth quarter of 2026 will tie in repurposed equipment from the adjacent Calumet Montana Refining facility.

Following the fourth-quarter integration, the company expects to exceed an 80 million gallon SAF run-rate by December 31, 2026. Production is projected to surpass 120 million gallons by spring 2027 and reach the 200 million gallon target by December 31, 2028.

Total renewable product sales, including renewable diesel and renewable gasoline, are targeted at 17,000 barrels per day by year-end 2028. This represents a 40 percent expansion. The expanded facility will consume 2 billion pounds of ranch- and farm-originated feedstocks annually.

AirPro News analysis

The revised MaxSAF expansion highlights a strategic shift in how producers approach SAF scaling. As noted by Aviation Week on September 2, 2026, the plan allows the largest US producer of SAF to more than triple its production capacity for barely 10 percent of the originally planned investment.

During Calumet’s second-quarter 2026 earnings call on August 7, 2026, the company confirmed that Montana Renewables completed performance testing of the newly installed MaxSAF catalyst, which met or exceeded expectations. By leveraging existing fossil-fuel infrastructure rather than pursuing multi-billion-dollar greenfield projects, producers can bring SAF to market faster and with significantly lower financial risk. This capital-efficient model may set a precedent for other refiners looking to enter or expand in the renewable fuels sector without diluting equity or taking on unsustainable debt.

Sources: Calumet, Inc.

United Airlines and Neste Corporation have extended their supply agreement for sustainable aviation fuel at Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD) and Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (AMS), securing deliveries through mid-2027. The extension supports the carrier’s expanding use of alternative fuels, which doubled in volume during the 2025 calendar year.

In a press release issued on September 16, 2026, Neste confirmed that deliveries under the extended contract began at Amsterdam in June 2026 and at Chicago O’Hare in July 2026. While the Amsterdam supply concluded in August 2026, the Chicago deliveries are scheduled to continue until June 2027. The agreement reinforces a long-standing partnership between the two companies, as United Airlines was the first carrier globally to utilize blended sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in regular commercial operations.

Expanding SAF utilization across the United network

United Airlines has steadily increased its integration of SAF, consuming 83,000 metric tons (approximately 27.7 million gallons) in 2025. This represents a 104 percent year-over-year increase in the airline’s SAF usage. The carrier now utilizes the fuel at six of its seven domestic hubs, following recent supply expansions to Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), Washington D.C., and Houston.

Under current aviation regulations, SAF is certified for commercial use at a maximum blending ratio of 50 percent with conventional jet fuel. United Airlines previously became the first operator to purchase and use blended SAF at Chicago O’Hare in August 2024.

Lauren Riley, Chief Sustainability Officer at United Airlines, highlighted the operational history behind the extended agreement.

“United was the first airline in the world to fly on blended SAF in regular operations, and we’ve spent the years since proving it can work at scale in day-to-day flying, including being the first airline to purchase and use blended SAF at Chicago O’Hare. Continuing our work with Neste across two continents reflects a shared conviction that SAF is available and capable of being scalable.”

Neste’s production capacity and feedstock strategy

Neste currently maintains a global SAF production capability of 1.5 million metric tons (approximately 515 million gallons) per year. The company projects this capacity will increase to 2.2 million metric tons (around 750 million gallons) in 2027, following the completion of an expansion project at its Rotterdam refinery.

To support this scaling production, the manufacturer is actively securing agricultural supply chains. On September 10, 2026, Neste and Bayer finalized a commercial agreement to jointly scale the production of newgold winter canola in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. This partnership is designed to strengthen the supply of lower-carbon-intensity feedstocks required to meet the growing global demand for biofuels.

Carl Nyberg, Senior Vice President of the Commercial, Renewable Products business at Neste, stated that the continued supply at major hubs demonstrates the viability of the fuel alternative.

“This extended agreement with United Airlines covering two international airports across two major aviation regions is a testament to our joint belief in the critical role of SAF in reducing aviation related GHG emissions. By continuing to make SAF available at two of United’s key hubs, we are proving that SAF is a readily available, scalable solution, and we look forward to continuing our longstanding collaboration.”

AirPro News analysis

We note that securing consistent SAF supply at major hubs like Chicago O’Hare remains a critical bottleneck for airlines attempting to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets. United’s ability to double its SAF uptake in a single year demonstrates aggressive procurement, but the total volume of 27.7 million gallons remains a fraction of the airline’s overall annual fuel consumption. Neste’s parallel moves to secure agricultural feedstock through partnerships like the recent Bayer agreement indicate that producers are actively working to mitigate supply chain constraints ahead of the anticipated 2027 refinery capacity increases.

Sources: Neste Corporation

Cathay Pacific Airways (CX) and Google announced an expanded partnerships on September 7, 2026, to scale artificial intelligence-driven contrail avoidance technology across the airline’s ultra-long-haul network. Following initial trials that reduced the climate impact of condensation trails by approximately 40 percent, the initiative will now cover transpacific, polar, and Asia-Pacific routes.

In a press release issued by the Hong Kong-based carrier, Cathay Pacific detailed how the system integrates Google’s AI predictions, satellite imagery, and weather data directly into the pilots’ Electronic Flight Folder. Developed in collaboration with the non-governmental organization Contrails.org, the technology allows flight crews to make minor altitude adjustments to avoid atmospheric zones prone to contrail formation. Contrails are responsible for roughly 35 percent of the aviation industry’s total global warming impact.

Scaling AI for climate mitigation

The decision to expand the program follows a testing phase initiated in late 2025. During that period, Cathay Pacific conducted over 80 flights utilizing the predictive technology. The results demonstrated a 40 percent reduction in the warming effect of contrails on those specific routes, proving the operational viability of the software on long-duration flights.

Lawrence Fong, Director of Digital and IT at Cathay Pacific, stated that the collaboration highlights how data and innovation can address real-world challenges at scale. Fong noted that the aviation sector requires immediate climate solutions and that artificial intelligence is accelerating that progress.

Operational integration and cost efficiency

Implementing contrail avoidance requires minimal changes to existing flight operations. Pilots receive contrail forecasts alongside standard operational data, enabling them to request altitude changes from air traffic control when approaching high-risk zones. While flights that alter their trajectory to avoid contrails consume approximately 2 percent more fuel, the fleet-wide fuel burn increase is estimated at just 0.3 percent because only a small fraction of flights require adjustment.

This efficiency makes contrail mitigation highly cost-effective. Google estimates the cost of implementation at $5 to $25 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Kemal Armada, Product Manager for Climate and AI at Google, described the technology as an extremely low-cost and effective climate lever that is immediately available for existing aircraft fleets regardless of the fuel type currently in use.

Broader industry adoption

The Cathay Pacific expansion is part of a broader push by Google to deploy its contrail prediction models across the global aviation sector. Prior to the Cathay Pacific trials, Google partnered with American Airlines (AA) for a 70-flight test program that achieved a 54 percent reduction in contrail formation.

On August 18, 2026, Google also launched “Operation Blue Skies,” a 30-month trial backed by the United Kingdom government. That initiative aims to test contrail avoidance at the scale of an entire oceanic airspace, focusing on the Shanwick Oceanic Control Area in the North Atlantic corridor.

AirPro News analysis

We view the expansion of the Cathay Pacific and Google partnership as a critical validation of software-based climate interventions in commercial aviation. While the industry heavily promotes Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and next-generation propulsion systems, those technologies face severe supply constraints and decades-long development timelines. Contrail avoidance utilizes existing aircraft and current air traffic management frameworks. If the 0.3 percent fleet-wide fuel penalty holds true at scale, airlines can achieve a disproportionately large reduction in their overall climate impact for a fraction of the cost of SAF procurement. The primary hurdle moving forward will likely be air traffic control capacity, as widespread altitude adjustments in congested airspace could introduce operational complexities that isolated trials have not yet fully tested.

Sources: Cathay Pacific