Space & Satellites
IBM NASA Surya AI Model Enhances Solar Storm Prediction Accuracy
IBM and NASA unveil Surya, an AI model improving solar storm forecasts by 16% to protect technology and infrastructure globally.
Revolutionary AI Model Surya Transforms Solar Storm Prediction and Technology Protection Through NASA-IBM Partnership
The development of the Surya Heliophysics Foundation Model marks a pivotal moment in the advancement of space weather prediction. By harnessing artificial intelligence and over a decade of continuous solar observation data, IBM and NASA have created an unprecedented capability for forecasting solar storms, events that pose significant threats to global technology infrastructure. Announced in August 2025, this collaboration has yielded the first foundation model tailored to heliophysics, achieving a 16% improvement in solar flare classification accuracy and providing visual predictions of flare locations up to two hours in advance. The potential economic impact of major solar storms is immense, with global losses estimated at $2.4 trillion over five years, underscoring the necessity of accurate prediction systems for safeguarding satellites, power grids, and communication networks. By releasing this 366-million parameter model as open source, IBM and NASA have democratized access to advanced space weather forecasting, empowering researchers worldwide to build upon NASA’s extensive Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) dataset and create specialized applications.
The Surya model’s open-source nature, performance breakthroughs, and technical innovations not only represent a leap forward in scientific capability but also signal a new era of interdisciplinary collaboration. The model’s development and deployment have implications for global resilience, economic stability, and the future of AI-driven scientific discovery.
Background on Solar Weather and Space Storms
Solar weather, driven by the Sun’s dynamic magnetic and plasma processes, is a major natural hazard for modern technology. The Sun’s nuclear fusion core generates complex magnetic fields, occasionally releasing charged particles and electromagnetic radiation in the form of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). When these phenomena reach Earth, they can disrupt satellites, power grids, and communications networks.
The significance of solar storms became widely recognized after the 1859 Carrington Event, which caused global telegraph failures and electrical fires. Today, the stakes are exponentially higher, as our dependence on electronic systems and interconnected infrastructure leaves us more vulnerable to space weather. The launch of NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory in 2010 represented a turning point, providing high-frequency, multi-wavelength solar observations that form the backbone of modern predictive efforts.
Solar activity follows an 11-year cycle, with peak periods producing frequent and intense storms. The classification system for solar flares, C, M, and X classes, reflects their increasing intensity, with X-class flares posing the greatest risk. The physical mechanisms behind these events involve the reconfiguration of magnetic field lines in the Sun’s corona, releasing vast amounts of energy that can travel through space at extraordinary speeds.
“If a Carrington-level event occurred today, the technological and economic impacts would be orders of magnitude greater than in the 19th century.”
The Economic Stakes of Space Weather Protection
The economic vulnerability to space weather has grown with the proliferation of satellite-dependent systems and digital infrastructure. According to Lloyd’s of London, a severe solar storm could expose the global economy to losses between $1.2 trillion and $9.1 trillion, with North-America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific facing the greatest risks. These projections reflect the interconnectedness of global power grids, telecommunications, and financial systems.
Electric power grids are particularly susceptible; geomagnetically induced currents from CMEs can overload transformers and trigger cascading failures. The 1989 Quebec blackout, caused by a geomagnetic storm, left millions without power and resulted in significant economic losses, a scenario that could be far worse today. Satellite operators face risks from radiation and charging effects, with past events leading to satellite failures and service disruptions.
The aviation industry is also exposed, especially on polar routes where communication blackouts and increased radiation can force costly rerouting. Telecommunications and GPS services, which underpin everything from agriculture to finance, can be degraded or disabled during severe storms. NOAA’s economic analyses estimate that space weather forecasting services help the electric power industry avoid losses ranging from $111 million to $27 billion, depending on the severity of the event.
“Space weather forecasting is not just a scientific endeavor, it’s an economic imperative for modern society.”
Technical Innovation Behind the Surya AI Model
Surya represents a technological leap in the application of AI to solar physics. The model, named after the Sanskrit word for “sun,” features 366 million parameters and a spatiotemporal transformer architecture designed to handle the massive scale and complexity of solar observation data. Its training relied on nine years of SDO data, encompassing multiple channels and instruments that capture the Sun’s behavior in unprecedented detail.
Key innovations include spectral gating and long-short range attention mechanisms, allowing the model to capture both fine spatial details and long-term temporal dynamics. Surya is the first heliophysics foundation model to use time advancement as a pretext task, enabling it to learn the physics of solar evolution by predicting changes in solar structures over time. This is further enhanced by autoregressive rollout tuning, which improves prediction accuracy over extended timeframes.
The model’s development required specialized computational infrastructure, provided by the National Science Foundation and NVIDIA, to process petabytes of high-resolution data. Surya’s architecture supports parameter-efficient fine-tuning, allowing researchers to adapt it for tasks such as active region segmentation, solar wind forecasting, and EUV spectra prediction.
“Surya’s ability to learn the Sun’s rotation and magnetic dynamics directly from data is a breakthrough for AI-driven scientific discovery.”
Performance Capabilities and Breakthrough Results
Surya’s performance sets new benchmarks in space weather prediction. Testing shows a 16% improvement in solar flare classification accuracy over previous methods, a substantial gain in a field where accuracy directly translates to protection for critical infrastructure. The model can provide visual predictions of flare locations up to two hours in advance, giving operators more time to take protective action.
The model’s versatility extends to forecasting solar wind speeds up to four days ahead and predicting the emergence of active regions that often precede major flares. Its ability to forecast EUV spectra across 1,343 channels enables more accurate modeling of atmospheric and satellite drag conditions, benefiting both scientific research and operational planning.
Surya’s architecture allows it to generalize across multiple applications, with zero-shot evaluations demonstrating its capability to forecast solar dynamics and flare events without task-specific fine-tuning. This broad applicability reduces the resources required for specialized research and operational deployment.
“Surya’s foundation model approach accelerates research and operational forecasting, setting a new standard for space weather science.”
Strategic Partnership Between IBM and NASA
The IBM-NASA partnership exemplifies the power of public-private collaboration in scientific innovation. Building on a broader initiative to develop foundational AI models for Earth and space science, the Surya project leverages IBM’s expertise in AI architecture and NASA’s deep domain knowledge in solar physics. This collaboration has produced not only technical breakthroughs but also new models for interdisciplinary research.
Key figures such as Juan Bernabé-Moreno of IBM and Kevin Murphy of NASA have emphasized the transformative potential of AI for space science. The partnership draws on expertise from multiple institutions, including NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the Southwest Research Institute, and others, ensuring that Surya meets both scientific and operational requirements.
The project’s open-source approach and integration with platforms like Hugging Face and GitHub reflect a commitment to transparency and global collaboration. By making Surya accessible to researchers worldwide, IBM and NASA are fostering a more inclusive and innovative scientific community.
Open Source Accessibility and Democratic Research
Surya’s open-source release is a significant departure from proprietary AI development. By publishing the model and its datasets on platforms such as Hugging Face, GitHub, and IBM’s TerraTorch, IBM and NASA have enabled researchers everywhere to access, modify, and extend Surya for their own applications. This approach supports reproducibility, accelerates innovation, and lowers barriers for institutions with limited resources.
The availability of curated datasets and benchmarks (SuryaBench) simplifies the process of developing and evaluating new heliophysics applications. Educational institutions are already incorporating Surya into curricula, ensuring that the next generation of researchers gains practical experience with advanced AI models.
The open-source model also supports commercial innovation, allowing companies to develop new services for satellite operations, power grid management, and space weather forecasting. This democratization of technology aligns with broader trends in open science and public-private partnership.
Conclusion
The Surya Heliophysics Foundation Model represents a major advancement in space weather prediction, offering improved accuracy, longer lead times, and broad applicability across scientific and operational domains. Its development through the IBM-NASA partnership demonstrates the potential of AI to address critical vulnerabilities in modern infrastructure while advancing fundamental scientific understanding.
As Surya’s capabilities are integrated into global space weather monitoring systems and adapted for new applications, the model’s open-source nature will ensure that its benefits are widely shared. The future of space weather science is likely to be shaped by continued collaboration, technological innovation, and the democratization of advanced predictive tools, transforming solar storms from unpredictable threats into manageable risks.
FAQ
What is the Surya Heliophysics Foundation Model?
Surya is an open-source AI model developed by IBM and NASA to predict solar storms and related space weather events, using high-resolution solar observation data.
How accurate is Surya compared to previous models?
Surya improves solar flare classification accuracy by 16% over earlier methods and can provide visual predictions up to two hours in advance.
Why is space weather prediction important?
Accurate space weather prediction is vital for protecting satellites, power grids, telecommunications, and GPS systems from disruptions caused by solar storms, which can have significant economic and safety impacts.
Is the Surya model available to the public?
Yes, Surya and its datasets are available as open source on platforms like Hugging Face and GitHub, enabling global access for research and development.
What are the future implications of Surya’s release?
Surya’s success paves the way for more advanced, collaborative, and open approaches to space weather prediction, with potential benefits for scientific research, industry, and global infrastructure protection.
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Photo Credit: IBM
Space & Satellites
NASA Restructures Artemis Program, Targets 2028 Moon Landing
NASA redefines Artemis III as a 2027 LEO demo and targets 2028 for the first crewed lunar landing with SpaceX or Blue Origin.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has fundamentally restructured its Artemis program, redefining the Artemis III mission as a low Earth orbit demonstration in 2027 and pushing the first crewed lunar landing to 2028. The agency has also unassigned specific landers for the initial landing missions, creating a direct competition between its two commercial providers based on hardware readiness.
In a press release issued on October 23, 2026, NASA announced it has updated the concepts of operations for its commercial human landing system (HLS) providers, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) and Blue Origin. The realignment is designed to accelerate lander development and mitigate technical risks as the agency prepares to establish a long-term presence at the Lunar South Pole.
Redefining Artemis III and the race to 2028
Under the original Artemis architecture, SpaceX was assigned to provide the lander for the Artemis III and IV missions, while Blue Origin was contracted for Artemis V. The October 23 announcement dissolves those specific assignments. Both providers will now participate in the redefined Artemis III mission, which will launch in 2027 to demonstrate rendezvous and docking capabilities between test versions of the commercial landers and the Orion spacecraft in low Earth orbit (LEO).
The first crewed lunar landing is now targeted for 2028. NASA will select either SpaceX or Blue Origin for this initial landing based on which company demonstrates lander readiness first, with a second crewed landing opportunity to follow for the other provider. During these initial surface missions, two crew members will descend to the lunar surface for two approximately two-hour-long moonwalks, while two astronauts remain aboard the Orion spacecraft.
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman emphasized the agency’s aggressive new posture regarding the timeline.
“We have a proven foundation in SLS and Orion, along with two lunar landers in development with Blue Origin and SpaceX. But NASA has no intention of sitting idly by as all the pieces come together. That is not how Apollo succeeded, and it is not how the near-impossible is achieved. NASA is energized, our core capabilities are being rebuilt, our machine shops are running 24/7, and our experts are in the field attacking the critical path. We are building a Super Bowl-caliber team to safely achieve these objectives and everything that comes next.”
Updated concepts of operations for SpaceX and Blue Origin
To meet the 2028 target, both commercial providers have significantly altered their mission architectures. SpaceX has updated its concept of operations for the Starship HLS. The new plan involves launching multiple tanker Starships to LEO to transfer cryogenic propellant to a depot Starship, which will then fuel the Starship lander. The lander will rendezvous and dock with the Orion spacecraft in Earth orbit and perform a trans-lunar injection burn to send the combined stack to low lunar orbit. To facilitate this, NASA is modifying the Orion spacecraft to enable Starship to push it to the Moon. SpaceX is also adding two demonstrations of its crew cabin to reduce risk.
Blue Origin has taken a different approach with its Blue Moon Mark 2 Alpha Lander. The company is deferring propellant transfer entirely for the initial missions. Instead, Blue Origin will use three transfer stages to send the lander to the Moon, operating similarly to a multistage rocket. The combined stack will depart for an elliptical polar orbit around the Moon. According to NASA, this orbital path reduces propellant requirements and maximizes the performance of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket compared to the previously planned near-rectilinear halo orbit. Blue Origin is also adding new human-in-the-loop testing and hardware readiness milestones.
Jeremy Parsons, NASA’s Artemis program manager, stated that updating the contracts ensures the agency and its partners are aligned on requirements and milestones. He noted that NASA and the lunar lander providers have been working closely to ensure the return of American astronauts to the Moon by 2028.
The commercial human landing system program history
The HLS program utilizes a public-private partnership model with firm-fixed-price, milestone-based contracts, a departure from traditional cost-plus government procurement. NASA awarded the initial $2.89 billion HLS contract to SpaceX in April 2021. Two years later, in May 2023, the agency selected Blue Origin as the second Artemis lunar lander provider under a $3.4 billion contract.
The push to accelerate development follows a period of programmatic reassessment. In March 2026, NASA hosted “Ignition Day,” announcing architecture updates that initiated the realignment of the HLS contracts. That same month, a report from the NASA Office of Inspector General (OIG) highlighted that while the fixed-price approach effectively controlled costs, both SpaceX and Blue Origin faced schedule delays, technical difficulties, and integration challenges. These findings prompted NASA to work directly with the companies to streamline designs and accelerate development to secure the 2028 landing date.
AirPro News analysis
The decision to unassign specific missions from SpaceX and Blue Origin represents a major shift in NASA’s procurement and operational strategy. By effectively pitting the two aerospace manufacturers against each other in a race to flight readiness, NASA is leveraging commercial competition to mitigate the schedule delays identified by the OIG earlier this year. Moving the Artemis III docking demonstration to low Earth orbit removes the immediate pressure of a lunar landing while still validating critical rendezvous hardware.
The technical changes are equally significant. Modifying the Orion spacecraft to be pushed by the Starship lander indicates a deeper integration of commercial hardware into the core Artemis architecture, blurring the lines between government-owned and commercially operated vehicles. Meanwhile, Blue Origin’s shift to a multistage transfer approach and an elliptical polar orbit demonstrates a willingness to bypass complex in-orbit propellant transfer requirements in favor of more traditional, albeit heavy-lift dependent, orbital mechanics to meet the 2028 deadline.
Photo Credit: NASA
Space & Satellites
BAE Systems Acquires Colorado Facility for Space Hardware
BAE Systems buys a 130,000-sq-ft facility in Weld County, Colorado, backed by nearly $20M in tax incentives for space hardware production.
BAE Systems has acquired a 130,000-square-foot production facility in Weld County, Colorado, to scale up its domestic manufacturing capacity for space-based hardware, software-defined radios, and sensor systems.
The property purchase, announced in a company press release on October 21, 2026, marks a major infrastructure investment for the defense contractor’s Space & Mission Systems division. The expansion is supported by nearly $20 million in state and federal tax incentives, reflecting a broader governmental push to secure domestic supply chains for critical aerospace technologies.
Facility details and economic incentives
Located at 4120 Specialty Place in unincorporated Weld County near Firestone, the new facility sits on a 13-acre campus. BAE Systems plans to spend the remainder of 2026 and all of 2027 retrofitting the building and procuring specialized manufacturing equipment. Production operations are anticipated to commence in early 2028.
The project advanced with substantial financial backing from the state of Colorado. The Colorado Economic Development Commission (EDC) approved a performance-based Job Growth Incentive Tax Credit valued at up to $11,184,835 over an eight-year period. The company also secured up to $8.6 million in CHIPS Refundable Tax Credits. Both incentive packages are contingent upon the company meeting specific net new job creation and salary requirements.
BAE Systems expects to hire more than 200 new employees over the next 12 to 24 months to staff the facility. At full operational capacity, the site could accommodate up to 600 workers.
“We look forward to expanding our production capabilities in Colorado with our first facility in Weld County. The support we received from the Weld County Commissioners and the State of Colorado played a key role in our ability to locate this essential production work for the company in Colorado, extending our manufacturing presence in the state,” said Alexis Wang, Vice President of Operations for BAE Systems.
Local and state officials highlighted the economic impact of the aerospace sector in the region. Colorado Governor Jared Polis noted that the investment will bring hundreds of jobs to Weld County, solidifying the state as a hub for advanced manufacturing. Scott James, Chair of the Weld County Board of Commissioners, stated that projects of this scale strengthen the entire industry ecosystem and create new opportunities across the region.
Integrating the Ball Aerospace acquisition
The Weld County expansion is a direct continuation of BAE Systems’ strategy to grow its footprint in the space sector, a push that accelerated significantly in early 2024. In February 2024, the company completed its $5.6 billion acquisition of Ball Aerospace, which formed the core of its newly established Space & Mission Systems division.
The new Firestone location joins an established network of Colorado production facilities inherited and expanded through the Ball Aerospace deal, including sites in Boulder, Broomfield, and Westminster. During the state regulatory and EDC review process in June 2026, the expansion project was shielded under the codenames “Project Mercury” and “Project Sodium” before the official site selection was made public.
Meeting Department of Defense space requirements
The physical expansion in Colorado aligns with an increased operational tempo for BAE Systems in securing United States Space Force and Department of Defense (DoD) contracts. The military is currently driving a rapid transition toward resilient satellite architectures, advanced missile warning systems, and secure communications networks, requiring contractors to scale up their hardware production capabilities.
In October 2026, Space Systems Command selected BAE Systems to design and demonstrate jam-resistant radio frequency terminals for a space-based data layer. This program relies heavily on the type of software-defined radios that the new Weld County facility is slated to produce.
This follows another major milestone in September 2026, when the company completed the critical design review for the U.S. Space Force’s Resilient Missile Warning and Tracking Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) Epoch 2 program.
The Colorado site purchase is part of a wider domestic manufacturing investment strategy by the company. In May 2026, BAE Systems announced a $135 million self-funded investment to upgrade its manufacturing sites in Hudson, New Hampshire, and Austin, Texas, aimed at speeding the delivery of critical systems for U.S. military readiness.
AirPro News analysis
We view the Weld County facility acquisition as a clear indicator of how rapidly BAE Systems is moving to capitalize on its $5.6 billion purchase of Ball Aerospace. By establishing a dedicated, high-capacity manufacturing center for space hardware, the company is positioning itself to transition from research and development contracts into full-scale production for the U.S. Space Force’s proliferated satellite architectures.
The successful application of CHIPS Refundable Tax Credits for this facility is equally notable. It demonstrates the growing overlap between semiconductor manufacturing incentives and national security space programs. As the Department of Defense demands more secure, domestically produced microelectronics and software-defined radios for orbital assets, defense contractors that can leverage federal and state industrial policy funds will hold a distinct capital advantage in scaling their production lines.
Photo Credit: BAE Systems
Space & Satellites
Firefly Aerospace Completes Elytra PDR for NASA MoonFall
Firefly Aerospace passed the Elytra spacecraft PDR less than four months after its $75M JPL subcontract for the 2028 MoonFall mission.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. has completed the Preliminary Design Review for its Elytra spacecraft, clearing a critical engineering hurdle to deliver four Jet Propulsion Laboratory drones to the lunar south pole for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
The milestone, announced in a company press release on October 21, 2026, was achieved less than four months after Firefly secured the $75 million subcontract. The successful review confirms the spacecraft design meets mission requirements and allows the program to advance toward its Critical Design Review and subsequent hardware production.
Accelerating the MoonFall mission timeline
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) announced the MoonFall mission on March 24, 2026, as part of the agency’s Ignition event. On May 26, 2026, Firefly Aerospace received the $75 million subcontract from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to execute the delivery phase of the mission.
Completing the Preliminary Design Review (PDR) validates the core architecture of the Elytra spacecraft. The company will now proceed to the Critical Design Review (CDR), which precedes final hardware production and assembly. The MoonFall mission is currently targeting a launch window in late 2028.
“Completing PDR less than four months after contract award is a testament to the speed and rigor Firefly brings to every mission,” said Ray Allensworth, Vice President of Spacecraft at Firefly Aerospace.
Allensworth noted that the company is rapidly scaling spacecraft production to support MoonFall and a growing manifest of lunar surface missions.
Elytra spacecraft and drone deployment mechanics
The mission profile requires the Elytra spacecraft to complete a 45-day transit from Earth orbit to lunar orbit. Once positioned approximately 50 kilometers above the lunar south pole, the Elytra vehicle will deploy the four JPL-built drones.
Each drone weighs approximately 550 pounds including propellant and measures 7 feet in diameter by 4 feet in height. Built on the engineering legacy of the Ingenuity Mars Helicopter, the drones are designed to cover a total range of 50 kilometers via multiple propulsive flights.
The primary surface operations will last for 14 Earth days, equivalent to one lunar day. During this period, the drones will utilize high-definition optical cameras, designated as the Lunar Dashcam, alongside instruments such as a neutron spectrometer. The objective is to map the lunar terrain and locate resources, including water ice, within permanently shadowed regions.
Leveraging proven lunar architecture
Established in 2017 and headquartered in Cedar Park, Texas, Firefly Aerospace develops launch vehicles, lunar landers, and orbital vehicles. To meet the accelerated MoonFall timeline, the Elytra spacecraft incorporates proven systems from the company’s Blue Ghost Mission 1.
Shared components include core avionics, carbon composite structures, and Spectre engines. By utilizing existing hardware designs, Firefly aims to reduce developmental risks for the orbital vehicle. NASA will procure the launch vehicle for the MoonFall mission through a separate contract.
The mission supports the broader Artemis program by scouting potential landing sites and resources ahead of crewed missions. Firefly Aerospace CEO Jason Kim previously stated that the subcontract underscores the commitment of the company to executing challenging missions that push the boundaries of lunar exploration.
The MoonFall subcontract has become a primary growth driver for the Texas-based manufacturer. On August 11, 2026, Firefly reported record second-quarter revenue of $117.7 million, representing a 659 percent year-over-year increase. Following the PDR completion announcement on October 21, 2026, shares of Firefly Aerospace climbed 3.6 percent in early trading.
AirPro News analysis
The rapid four-month turnaround from contract award to Preliminary Design Review demonstrates Firefly Aerospace’s maturation from a launch startup into a prime contractor capable of executing complex deep-space logistics. By utilizing existing Blue Ghost architecture for the Elytra vehicle, the company is minimizing developmental friction and protecting its profit margins on the $75 million firm-fixed-price subcontract. This execution speed positions Firefly favorably for future Artemis program contracts as NASA increasingly relies on commercial partners for lunar infrastructure and scouting operations.
Photo Credit: Firefly Aerospace
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