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NTSB Preliminary Findings on UPS Flight 2976 Engine Failure Crash

NTSB reports metal fatigue caused UPS Flight 2976 left engine separation, resulting in 14 fatalities and fleet groundings.

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NTSB Releases Preliminary Findings on UPS Flight 2976 Accident

On November 20, 2025, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) released its Preliminary Report regarding the catastrophic loss of UPS Flight 2976. The accident, which took place on the evening of November 4, 2025, involved a McDonnell Douglas MD-11F Cargo-Aircraft departing from Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport (SDF). The crash resulted in the fatalities of all three crew members on board and 11 individuals on the ground, marking the deadliest accident in the history of UPS Airlines. The release of this report provides the first official technical insight into the sequence of events leading to the tragedy.

The investigation, identified as DCA26MA024, has drawn significant attention from the aviation industry and the general public due to the severity of the ground impact and the age of the airframe involved. While the investigation is ongoing and a final determination of probable cause may take a year or more, the preliminary data points to a critical structural failure during the takeoff sequence. The NTSB’s initial findings focus heavily on the separation of the aircraft’s left engine and the integrity of the pylon structure connecting it to the wing.

We are analyzing the details provided in the preliminary report to understand the mechanical and operational factors at play. This article breaks down the factual sequence of events, the specific mechanical failures identified by investigators, the human cost of the accident, and the immediate regulatory and industrial responses that have followed. The information presented here is based strictly on the NTSB preliminary report and verified data available as of November 20, 2025.

Structural Failure and Flight Sequence

According to the NTSB preliminary report and corroborated surveillance footage, the accident sequence began during the takeoff roll on Runway 17R. The aircraft, registered as N259UP, appeared to function normally during the initial acceleration. However, the situation deteriorated rapidly at the moment of rotation, the point where the nose of the aircraft lifts off the ground to begin the climb. Investigators have determined that as the aircraft rotated, the No. 1 engine, located on the left wing, physically separated from the aircraft along with its pylon structure.

Analysis of the Engine Separation

Surveillance video reviewed by the NTSB captured the engine traversing over the fuselage after detaching, subsequently falling to the ground within the airport perimeter. The separation caused an immediate and massive fire at the attachment point on the left wing. The No. 1 engine and the majority of the pylon structure were recovered on the grass adjacent to Runway 17R, confirming that these critical components were lost before the aircraft had fully departed the airport environment. This separation significantly compromised the aircraft’s aerodynamics and structural integrity.

Following the separation, the aircraft managed to climb briefly to an altitude estimated between 100 and 175 feet Above Ground Level (AGL). The Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) data indicates that a “repeating bell” sound began 37 seconds after takeoff thrust was set and continued until the recording ceased. The aircraft was unable to maintain altitude or directional control, banking sharply to the left. The flight path ended when the left main landing gear impacted the roof of a UPS Supply Chain Solutions warehouse, followed by a crash into a nearby industrial park.

“Investigators identified metal fatigue cracks on the aft mount and spherical bearing of the left engine pylon. The outer ring of the spherical bearing was fractured around its entire circumference.”

Metallurgical Findings and Maintenance History

The focus of the investigation has narrowed to the structural components holding the engine to the wing. The NTSB report highlights the discovery of metal fatigue cracks on the aft mount and the spherical bearing of the left engine pylon. Specifically, cracks were present on both fracture surfaces of the aft lug, and the outer ring of the spherical bearing was found fractured around its entire circumference. These findings suggest a pre-existing structural weakness that ultimately failed under the stress of takeoff.

Maintenance records for N259UP are currently under intense scrutiny. The 34-year-old aircraft had recently undergone heavy maintenance in San Antonio, Texas, approximately six weeks prior to the accident. Investigators are working to determine whether the fatigue cracks were present and undetectable during that maintenance visit, or if they developed rapidly in the short period following the service. The aircraft had accumulated over 21,000 flight cycles and 92,000 flight hours since its manufacture in 1991.

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Casualties and Ground Impact

The crash of Flight 2976 resulted in a significant loss of life, impacting both the flight crew and the local community in Louisville. The accident site, located in an industrial area immediately south of the Airports, sustained heavy damage, particularly to the Grade A Recycling facility and a Kentucky Petroleum Recycling depot. The impact caused a massive post-crash explosion and fire, complicating rescue efforts and increasing the severity of the incident.

The Flight Crew

The three crew members operating the flight were fatally injured in the crash. The flight was commanded by Captain Richard Wartenberg, 57, a resident of Independence, Kentucky, and a retired U.S. Air-Forces Lieutenant Colonel with the 445th Airlift Wing. He was accompanied by First Officer Lee Truitt, 45, from the Louisville area, and Captain Dana Diamond, 62, who was serving as the International Relief Officer. Their experience and backgrounds highlight the tragic loss of seasoned aviation professionals.

Impact on the Community

The ground casualties were concentrated in the industrial facilities struck by the aircraft. Eleven individuals on the ground lost their lives. Among the identified victims were Louisnes “Lou” Fedon, 47, a customer at the recycling center, and his three-year-old granddaughter, Kimberly Asa. Other victims included Matt Sweets, 37, an electrician working in the area who succumbed to severe burns two days after the crash, and Angela Anderson, 45, who was located at the Grade A Recycling center. The crash also resulted in injuries to 23 other individuals, with two listed in serious condition.

Industry Implications and Regulatory Actions

The release of the preliminary findings has triggered immediate responses across the aviation logistics sector. The identification of pylon fatigue as a primary factor has led to precautionary measures regarding the McDonnell Douglas MD-11F fleet, a workhorse of the global air cargo industry. The implications of these findings extend beyond UPS, affecting other major operators and maintenance organizations.

Fleet Groundings and Directives

In response to the crash, UPS Airlines immediately grounded its entire fleet of MD-11F aircraft out of an abundance of caution. FedEx Express, the other primary operator of the MD-11F, followed suit by grounding its fleet pending inspections. These voluntary groundings were reinforced by regulatory action; the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued Emergency Airworthiness Directives (AD) requiring immediate inspections of engine pylons on all MD-11 and DC-10 series aircraft. These directives are mandatory and aimed at detecting any similar fatigue cracking in the active fleet.

Future Outlook for the MD-11F

The grounding of two major MD-11 fleets is expected to cause notable disruptions in global air cargo logistics, particularly for long-haul heavy freight where the MD-11F is frequently utilized. As the manufacturer via merger, Boeing is a party to the investigation. The focus on metal fatigue in aging airframes may lead to the implementation of more rigorous maintenance protocols for the remaining MD-11 fleets globally. The industry will be closely monitoring the ongoing investigation to see if further structural modifications or retirement schedules will be recommended for this aircraft type.

Conclusion

The NTSB’s preliminary report on UPS Flight 2976 provides a factual baseline for understanding the mechanical failure that led to this tragedy. The identification of fatigue cracking in the engine pylon structure shifts the focus of the investigation toward maintenance practices, material fatigue management, and the aging of the global cargo fleet. As the investigation continues, the NTSB will work to establish the root cause of the fatigue and why it went undetected.

For the families of the 14 victims and the aviation community, the report offers initial answers but highlights the complexities of aviation safety. The coming months will likely see continued disruptions in cargo logistics as inspections proceed, alongside a broader industry conversation regarding the longevity and inspection requirements of older freighter aircraft.

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FAQ

What caused the crash of UPS Flight 2976?
According to the NTSB preliminary report, the primary cause was the structural failure and separation of the No. 1 (left) engine and its pylon from the wing during takeoff, caused by metal fatigue cracking.

How many people died in the accident?
There were 14 total fatalities: 3 crew members on board the aircraft and 11 individuals on the ground.

What is the status of the MD-11F fleet?
Following the crash, both UPS Airlines and FedEx Express grounded their MD-11F fleets. The FAA has issued Emergency Airworthiness Directives requiring immediate inspections of engine pylons on these aircraft types.

When was the aircraft last serviced?
The aircraft, N259UP, had undergone heavy maintenance in San Antonio, Texas, approximately six weeks prior to the accident.

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Photo Credit: NTSB

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Regulations & Safety

NASA GlennICE Advances 3D Aircraft Icing Simulation Software

NASA’s GlennICE software enhances aircraft icing prediction with advanced 3D simulations, supporting safer designs for future aviation technologies.

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This article is based on an official press release from NASA.

NASA Unveils GlennICE: A Digital Leap for Aviation Safety

NASA has officially introduced GlennICE, a next-generation software code designed to revolutionize how the aviation industry predicts and prevents ice accumulation on aircraft. Developed at the Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio, this new tool addresses the limitations of decades-old legacy systems, offering high-fidelity 3D simulations critical for the safety of emerging aircraft designs, including eVTOL vehicles and sustainable commercial jets.

According to an announcement from the agency on December 4, 2025, GlennICE, short for the Glenn Icing Computational Environment, enables engineers to “flight test” designs digitally with extreme precision. By simulating how ice forms on complex surfaces like rotating propeller blades, engine interiors, and truss-braced wings, the software aims to reduce the reliance on expensive and time-consuming physical wind tunnel testing.

From 2D Legacy to 3D Precision

For over 20 years, the aviation industry relied primarily on LEWICE, a 2D coding standard also developed by NASA. While LEWICE proved effective for traditional “tube-and-wing” aircraft, it struggles to model the intricate geometries of modern Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) vehicles. NASA officials state that GlennICE was built specifically to bridge this gap.

Christopher Porter, the lead developer for GlennICE at NASA, emphasized the necessity of this evolution in the agency’s press release:

“The legacy codes are well formulated to handle simulations of traditional tube-and-wing shaped aircraft. But now, we have new vehicles with new designs that present icing research challenges. This requires a more advanced tool, and that’s where GlennICE comes in.”

Advanced Physics and Droplet Tracking

The core advancement in GlennICE is its use of Lagrangian droplet tracking. Unlike previous methods that utilized simple 2D strips, GlennICE simulates the trajectories of individual water droplets as they approach an aircraft. According to NASA technical reports, the software can track millions of droplets to calculate exactly which ones impact the surface and which are swept away by airflow.

Validation data indicates the software has demonstrated the ability to simulate over 134 million trajectories to ensure safety-critical accuracy. This capability allows it to model various hazardous icing conditions, including:

  • Rime Ice: Rough, opaque ice that forms instantly upon impact.
  • Glaze Ice: Clear, heavy ice that can run back along the wing before freezing, altering aerodynamics significantly.
  • Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD): Freezing rain or drizzle, which poses a severe threat to flight control surfaces.
  • Ice Crystals: High-altitude particles that can melt and refreeze inside turbine engines.

Industry Adoption and Strategic Partnerships

The transition to GlennICE is already underway across the aerospace sector. NASA reports that “dozens of industry partners” are currently utilizing the tool to certify next-generation aircraft. Key collaborations highlighted in recent reports include:

  • Boeing: Engineers are using GlennICE to predict ice formation on the Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) concept, known as the X-66A. The software helps model ice buildup on the aircraft’s unique support struts, a task difficult to achieve with legacy 2D tools.
  • Wisk Aero: As a subsidiary of Boeing focused on autonomous air taxis, Wisk utilizes the software to simulate icing on complex rotors and lifting surfaces, a critical step for AAM certification.
  • Honeywell Aerospace: The company employs GlennICE to research “ice crystal icing” inside engines, a phenomenon linked to power loss events in commercial aviation.

AirPro News Analysis

The release of GlennICE represents a pivotal moment for the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) sector. As manufacturers of eVTOLs and delivery drones push toward commercial certification, they face stringent safety requirements regarding flight into known icing (FIKI) conditions. Physical testing for every potential icing scenario is financially prohibitive and logistically difficult given the limited availability of specialized facilities like the NASA Icing Research Tunnel.

By providing a validated “digital twin” capability, NASA is effectively lowering the barrier to entry for sustainable aviation startups. If regulators accept GlennICE data as a partial substitute for physical testing, similar to how CFD is used in aerodynamics, it could significantly accelerate the timeline for bringing autonomous air taxis to market.

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Validating the Digital Twin

To ensure the software’s predictions match reality, NASA validated GlennICE using data from the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT), the world’s oldest and largest refrigerated wind tunnel. This process ensures that the digital simulations align with physical physics, allowing engineers to trust the software for scenarios that are difficult to replicate physically.

Porter noted the importance of this capability in the official release:

“Some environments we need to test in are impractical with wind tunnels because of the tunnel size required and complex physics involved. But with GlennICE, we can do these tests digitally.”

Version 5.1.0 of the software, released in early 2025, introduced standardized verification frameworks, further solidifying its role as the new industry standard for icing research.

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Photo Credit: NASA

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Regulations & Safety

MH370 Deep-Sea Search Resumes Dec 30 with No Find No Fee Contract

Ocean Infinity will recommence the MH370 search in late 2025 using autonomous vessels under a $70M no find no fee agreement over 55 days in the Indian Ocean.

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This article summarizes reporting by NPR and The Associated Press.

Deep-Sea Search for MH370 to Resume December 30 Under “No Find, No Fee” Deal

The search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 (MH370), one of aviation’s most enduring mysteries, is set to resume later this month. According to reporting by NPR and The Associated Press, the Malaysian government has confirmed that the marine robotics firm Ocean Infinity will restart operations on December 30, 2025. The mission operates under a strict performance-based contract, with a financial reward contingent entirely on success.

This renewed effort marks a significant development in the decade-long quest to locate the Boeing 777, which vanished on March 8, 2014, with 239 people on board. As reported by the Associated Press, the government has stipulated a payment of $70 million to Ocean Infinity, but only if the wreckage is located within a 55-day timeframe.

Operational Details and Financial Stakes

The upcoming mission is technically a resumption of an effort that began earlier in 2025 but was suspended in April due to hazardous winter conditions in the southern hemisphere. The structure of the agreement places the financial risk squarely on the contractor.

Under the “no find, no fee” terms outlined in reports, Ocean Infinity will bear the upfront costs of fuel, personnel, and equipment. The Malaysian Ministry of Transport has indicated that the $70 million reward is payable only upon positive identification of the debris field. This model incentivizes efficiency and the use of cutting-edge technology to cover ground quickly.

According to operational details surfacing in recent reports, the search window is limited to 55 days of intermittent searching. This duration accounts for the transit time required to reach the remote search zone and potential pauses necessitated by the volatile weather patterns characteristic of the southern Indian Ocean.

Technology and Target Zone

The search strategy relies heavily on advanced autonomous systems. The primary vessel for this mission is identified as the Armada 78 06, a 78-meter robotic vessel from Ocean Infinity’s fleet. Unlike previous searches that relied on towed sonar arrays connected to crewed ships by miles of cable, the Armada fleet utilizes UAVs.

These UAVs are capable of scanning the seabed with higher resolution and greater speed. They can operate simultaneously, covering vast swathes of the ocean floor while the surface vessel monitors data acquisition. The target area for this phase covers approximately 15,000 square kilometers (roughly 5,800 square miles) in the southern Indian Ocean.

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Experts and independent researchers, including the “UGIB” group (Ulich, Godfrey, Iannello, and Banks), have advocated for this specific zone. Based on refined analyses of satellite “handshake” data and debris drift modeling, the search will focus on the vicinity of the “Seventh Arc,” specifically between latitudes 33°S and 36°S near the Broken Ridge underwater plateau.

AirPro News Analysis: The Shift to Autonomous Search

The deployment of the Armada 78 06 represents a pivotal shift in deep-sea salvage and search operations. Previous efforts, such as the Australia-led search from 2014 to 2017, were hampered by the logistical difficulties of towing equipment at extreme depths. The tethered approach limited maneuverability and required slow towing speeds to prevent cable breakage.

By utilizing untethered AUVs, Ocean Infinity can decouple the sensors from the surface conditions to a significant degree. This allows the sensors to hug the rugged terrain of the Indian Ocean floor more closely, potentially revealing wreckage that might have been obscured in the “shadows” of underwater mountains during previous lower-resolution scans. If successful, this mission could validate the economic viability of autonomous fleets for high-stakes oceanography.

Stakeholder Reactions and Historical Context

The disappearance of MH370 remains a painful open wound for the families of the 227 passengers and 12 crew members. Family associations, particularly Voice370, have consistently lobbied for the search to continue, arguing that finding the hull is essential for global safety.

Prominent family members have publicly stated that preventing future recurrences requires a definitive understanding of what happened to the aircraft. The Malaysian Ministry of Transport has echoed this sentiment, stating that the resumption of the search underscores their commitment to providing closure.

This is not the first time Ocean Infinity has attempted to solve the mystery. In 2018, the company conducted a similar “no find, no fee” search covering over 112,000 square kilometers. While that mission ended without success, the technology has evolved significantly in the intervening years. The Chinese government, representing the majority of the passengers, continues to monitor these developments closely.

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Sources: NPR / The Associated Press

Photo Credit: Rob Griffith – AP

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ATSB Finds Data Entry Error Caused Safety Risk on Qantas 737 Flight

ATSB report details how a data-entry error led to a Qantas 737-800 departing Canberra overweight, highlighting system and communication failures.

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ATSB Report: Data Entry Error Triggered “Cascading” Safety Risks on Qantas 737 Flight

A seemingly minor data-entry mistake by ground staff initiated a complex chain of errors that resulted in a Qantas Boeing 737-800 taking off from Canberra significantly heavier than its flight crew believed. According to a final report released by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) regarding the December 1, 2024 incident, the Commercial-Aircraft departed with incorrect performance calculations, creating a genuine Safety risk that was only mitigated by the pilots’ conservative decision-making.

The incident highlights the fragility of automated safety systems when human operators are under pressure. As reported by ABC News and detailed in the ATSB findings, the error caused the flight management computer to calculate takeoff speeds that were too slow for the aircraft’s actual weight, increasing the potential for a tailstrike or runway overrun.

The Trigger: A Case of Mistaken Identity

The sequence of events began when a Qantas staff member in Canberra, reportedly working under high pressure due to weather-related diversions, accessed the flight planning system. According to the ATSB report, the employee inadvertently entered the aircraft code for a Boeing 717, a smaller 125-seat jet, instead of the correct Boeing 737-800, which seats 164 passengers.

While the staff member realized the mistake and corrected the aircraft type code back to a 737, they failed to notice a critical automated consequence of the initial error. When the system briefly thought the flight was a smaller Boeing 717, it automatically “offloaded” 51 passengers (11 Business Class and 40 Economy) to align with the smaller jet’s capacity. When the code was corrected, the system did not automatically re-add these passengers.

Weight and Performance Discrepancies

Because the 51 passengers were missing from the digital manifest, the final loadsheet issued to the pilots was inaccurate. The ATSB investigation revealed the following discrepancies:

  • Weight Error: The aircraft was approximately 4,291 kg (4.3 tonnes) heavier than the loadsheet indicated.
  • Speed Calculation: The flight management computer calculated takeoff speeds 3–4 knots lower than required for the actual weight.

Communication Breakdowns and Missed Opportunities

The ATSB described the incident as a failure of the safety system to catch the initial slip, citing “cascading” errors that bypassed multiple layers of defense. Although the initial input was a human error, the subsequent failure to rectify it involved broken chains of communication.

According to the investigation, a Load Control Manager eventually noticed the discrepancy in the system and attempted to contact the pilots via mobile phone, but the call went unanswered. The issue was then escalated to Movement Control, who attempted to radio the crew. However, the pilots had deselected the radio to focus on pre-flight data entry, a standard procedure designed to minimize distractions in the cockpit.

In a final attempt to reach the crew, Movement Control radioed the Gate Agent to pass the urgent message. This action breached standard procedure, which requires direct liaison with the flight crew for critical load errors. Consequently, the message never reached the pilots before the aircraft began its takeoff roll.

Safety Outcome and Pilot Actions

Despite the incorrect data, the flight departed safely. The ATSB credited the pilots’ conservative approach to performance planning for preventing a more serious outcome. Rather than utilizing a shorter intersection departure or applying a “headwind credit”, which allows for higher weights or lower speeds based on wind conditions, the crew elected to use the full length of the runway.

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Dr. Stuart Godley, Director of Transport Safety at the ATSB, noted the importance of these decisions in the official report:

“Fortunately, the flight crew elected to use the full length of the runway… which added an increased safety margin.”

The crew only discovered the error after the aircraft was airborne.

AirPro News Analysis: The Danger of Automation Bias

This incident serves as a textbook example of “automation surprise” or bias. When the ground staff member corrected the aircraft type from 717 back to 737, they likely assumed the computer would “undo” all associated changes, including the removal of passengers. This psychological reliance on system logic can be dangerous when software is designed to be conservative (offloading passengers to prevent overbooking) but not restorative.

Furthermore, the “high workload” environment cited in the report underscores a persistent industry challenge. When staff are saturated with tasks, in this case, managing weather diversions, their ability to cross-check automated outputs diminishes. The failure here was not just individual, but systemic, as the software provided no clear warning that the passenger count had been drastically altered following the code correction.

Qantas Response and Procedural Changes

Qantas has acknowledged the findings and accepted the ATSB’s conclusions. In response to the incident, the Airlines has implemented new safety protocols to prevent recurrence. According to the report, airport staff are now required to conduct a manual headcount whenever passenger numbers in the system do not match expected figures, ensuring physical verification before a flight is closed.

Dr. Godley emphasized the broader lesson for the Aviation industry:

“The occurrence demonstrated how a small error can cascade when unusual situations are not proactively identified, addressed, or escalated by those involved in a safety system.”

Frequently Asked Questions

Was the flight ever in immediate danger of crashing?
While the risk was elevated due to incorrect speeds, the ATSB noted that the pilots’ decision to use the full runway length provided a sufficient safety buffer. Had they used a shorter intersection or less conservative settings, the risk of a tailstrike or runway overrun would have been significantly higher.

How common are data-entry errors in aviation?
Data-entry errors are a known hazard. Similar incidents have occurred in the past, including a 2014 Qantas flight where children were assigned adult weights, and a 2009 Emirates incident in Melbourne where an incorrect weight entry led to a severe tailstrike.

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What happened to the staff member involved?
The report focuses on systemic improvements rather than individual punishment. It highlights that the staff member was working under high pressure due to weather disruptions, which is a known human factor in safety incidents.

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Photo Credit: A Periam Photography – Shutterstock

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