Canada’s F-35 Fighter Jet Program: Defense Review Recommends Staying the Course Amid Political and Economic Pressures

Canada’s defense establishment has delivered a clear message to the government: stick with the F-35 Lightning II fighter jet program despite escalating costs and deteriorating relations with the United States. According to sources familiar with a recently completed defense review, Canadian military officials have strongly advocated for maintaining the commitment to purchase all 88 Lockheed Martin F-35A aircraft rather than splitting the order with European alternatives. This recommendation comes at a critical juncture for Canadian defense procurement, as the program faces unprecedented cost overruns, political scrutiny, and the broader context of a trade war with the United States that has fundamentally altered the bilateral relationship.

The decision on whether to continue with the F-35 program is more than just a procurement choice. It is a test of Canada’s ability to balance operational requirements, industrial interests, alliance politics, and fiscal realities. With billions of dollars at stake, the outcome will shape Canadian air power and its defense industry for decades.

Historical Context and Program Evolution

Canada’s involvement with the F-35 program represents one of the most prolonged and controversial defense procurements in the nation’s history. The journey began in 1997 when Canada first joined the Joint Strike Fighter project as an “informed partner” with an initial investment of US$10 million. This early participation evolved into a more substantial commitment in 2002, when Canada became a level-three participant alongside Norway, Denmark, Turkey, and Australia, contributing an additional US$100 million from the Department of National Defence over ten years and another $50 million from Industry Canada.

The program’s trajectory took a decisive turn in July 2010 when Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative government announced its intention to procure 65 F-35s to replace the existing 80 McDonnell Douglas CF-18 Hornets for C$9 billion, with total ancillary costs estimated at C$16 billion. This sole-source procurement decision became a lightning rod for political controversy, contributing to the Conservative government’s defeat through a non-confidence vote in 2011, when Parliament found the government in contempt for refusing to provide detailed costing information.

Political volatility continued through subsequent elections. The Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau won the 2015 election partly on a campaign promise to not buy the F-35, instead pursuing “one of the many, lower-priced options that better match Canada’s defence needs.” However, after conducting a formal competition that included the F-35, the government announced in March 2022 that the F-35A had been selected, with negotiations beginning for the purchase of 88 aircraft. By December 2022, the Department of National Defence received approval to spend $7 billion on the first 16 F-35As and related equipment.

Recent Defense Review Findings and Political Context

The current phase of the F-35 story began when Prime Minister Mark Carney, who assumed office in March 2025, ordered a comprehensive review of the program. Carney had campaigned on promises to stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump and expressed concerns that “Canada was over-reliant on the U.S. defense industry.” This review was conducted against the backdrop of unprecedented tensions between Canada and the United States, including the imposition of 35% tariffs by the Trump administration and the broader trade war that began in February 2025.

The defense review, completed by military officials in recent weeks, stops short of making a formal recommendation but presents a compelling case for maintaining the full F-35 commitment. Two sources familiar with the matter indicated that Canadian defense officials “strongly made the case that Ottawa should stick to a plan to buy 88 Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 fighter jets rather than splitting the order.” The assessment concluded there was “no military sense in splitting the order,” citing the F-35’s status as “the most advanced fighter of its type” and the additional costs that would be incurred in training, supplies, and maintenance if Canada pursued a mixed fleet approach.

The review’s findings align with statements from the new commander of the Royal Canadian Air Force, Lieutenant-General Jamie Speiser-Blanchet, who became the first woman to head the service in July 2025. Speaking about the RCAF’s modernization plans, Speiser-Blanchet emphasized that the service is “building a very modern fifth-generation air force, which will have technology that we’ve never seen before,” with the F-35A serving as the centerpiece of this transformation.

“There was no military sense in splitting the order,” the review concluded, highlighting the operational and logistical challenges of a mixed fleet.

Escalating Cost Concerns and Auditor General Findings

The economic dimension of the F-35 program has become increasingly problematic, with costs spiraling far beyond initial projections. The most recent audit by Canada’s Auditor General Karen Hogan, published in June 2025, revealed that the estimated cost of the program has climbed to CAD $27.7 billion, representing a 46% increase from the CAD $19 billion projection made in 2023. This dramatic cost escalation occurred over just two years, highlighting the program’s vulnerability to external economic factors.

The auditor general’s report identified several factors contributing to the cost overruns, including “rising inflation, fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, and heightened global demand for munitions.” However, the audit also criticized the Department of National Defence for basing its 2022 estimates on outdated data from 2019, despite the availability of better estimates showing that aircraft costs had already increased substantially. The department was found to be only 50% confident in its 2022 estimate, raising questions about the reliability of financial planning for the program.

Perhaps more concerning is that the $27.7 billion figure does not include all elements needed to achieve full operational capability. The audit estimates that at least an additional CAD $5.5 billion would be required for weapons and vital infrastructure, potentially bringing the total cost to over $33 billion. This excludes the broader life-cycle costs, which a Parliamentary Budget Office report from November 2023 estimated would reach US$73.9 billion over 45 years of operation.

Alternative Aircraft Options and European Alternatives

Despite the defense review’s recommendation to stick with the F-35, significant political pressure remains to consider European alternatives. Prime Minister Carney has indicated that his government is “speaking with European partners about purchasing fighter jets,” mentioning potential alternatives such as the Saab JAS 39 Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, and Dassault Rafale. These aircraft represent different approaches to meeting Canada’s fighter requirements, each with distinct advantages and limitations.

The Swedish-built Saab Gripen has been positioned as a particularly viable alternative for Canadian operations. Saab has emphasized the Gripen’s suitability for Arctic operations, its ability to operate from remote airfields, and quick turnaround times for missions. During the original fighter competition, Saab had promised to build planes in Canada and came second to the F-35.

The Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale, both advanced European fighters, were withdrawn from Canada’s original fighter competition, citing NORAD requirements that favored American aircraft. This withdrawal highlighted fundamental interoperability challenges that would need to be addressed if Canada chose a mixed fleet approach.

“It’s pretty good in operating in dispersed locations, as you have in Canada,” said a Saab Aeronautics executive about the Gripen’s suitability for Arctic operations.

Military and Strategic Considerations

From a purely operational perspective, military experts have raised significant concerns about alternatives to an all-F-35 fleet. The review’s conclusion that there was “no military sense in splitting the order” reflects deeper technical and strategic considerations beyond simple aircraft performance metrics. The F-35’s advanced sensor fusion capabilities and integration with North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) systems provide unique advantages for Canadian operations, particularly in the Arctic region.

The situational awareness capabilities of the F-35 represent a generational leap in fighter technology. The F-35 aggregates extensive data through sensors and datalinks to detect, identify and monitor targets, with its efficacy enhanced by NORAD integration that provides the Royal Canadian Air Force sole access to vast quantities of highly sensitive operationalized intelligence. This integration is particularly valuable in the Canadian North, where four F-35s can cover the same territory as several dozen fourth-generation fighters like the Gripen or Rafale.

Retired Lieutenant-General Yvan Blondin, former commander of the RCAF, has acknowledged that the F-35 “is the best plane for Canada’s operational needs,” though he has also raised concerns about U.S. control over the aircraft’s critical systems. The integration challenges with European alternatives are substantial, involving costly retrofits and logistical complexities that the Canadian military is keen to avoid.

Economic and Industry Impact

The F-35 program represents more than just aircraft procurement; it constitutes a significant industrial and economic arrangement between Canada and the United States. Over 30 active contractors in Canada contribute to manufacturing and services for the global F-35 fleet, with more than $3.3 billion USD in contracts awarded to Canadian industry as of January 2025. These arrangements are formalized through Economic Benefits Arrangements (EBA) signed by both Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney, which will help ensure that the production contracts that Canadian industry has secured through Canada’s participation in the Joint Strike Fighter Program will continue into the future.

The scale of Canadian industrial participation is exemplified by companies like Magellan Aerospace, whose Winnipeg plant is one of the largest participants in the F-35 program in Canada. The facility manufactures horizontal tail assemblies for the F-35A, with contracts expected to generate approximately $1.5 billion in revenues over the program’s lifetime. By 2019, the plant was ramping up deliveries to 60 assemblies per year, accounting for half of all tail assemblies for the F-35A variant.

This industrial integration creates significant economic incentives for maintaining the F-35 commitment. Canadian companies have invested heavily in tooling, processes, and workforce development specifically for F-35 production. A decision to split the order or pursue alternatives could jeopardize these investments and potentially exclude Canadian industry from future opportunities in the global F-35 enterprise.

Infrastructure and Implementation Challenges

Beyond the aircraft themselves, the F-35 program faces significant infrastructure and implementation challenges that contribute to both cost overruns and schedule delays. The auditor general’s report identified that construction of two new fighter squadron facilities in Cold Lake, Alberta, and Bagotville, Quebec, is running more than three years behind schedule. These facilities will not be ready until at least 2031 because the department needs to redo important elements of their design to meet the F-35’s significant infrastructure security requirements.

The infrastructure delays stem partly from the fact that the Department of National Defence started planning the new facilities in 2020 before the government had settled on the F-35, but the selected aircraft comes with unique security requirements that necessitated design changes. The department has produced a contingency plan to operate the aircraft from temporary facilities, but this plan was found to be incomplete and offered “no proposed actions nor a cost estimate,” potentially adding further costs to the program.

Personnel shortages represent another critical challenge. Despite being warned about pilot shortages as early as 2018, Canada continues to face a deficit in qualified pilots to fly the advanced aircraft. The Royal Canadian Air Force is working to address these shortages through increased recruiting and retention measures, but the timeline for resolution remains uncertain.

Current Status and Decision Timeline

As of August 2025, Canada has committed to purchasing the first 16 F-35 aircraft, with delivery expected to begin in early 2026. The first eight aircraft will be located at the F-35A Pilot Training Center at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona to enable training of Royal Canadian Air Force pilots while infrastructure completion continues in Canada. The first aircraft is expected to arrive in Canada in 2028, with the fleet expected to remain in service beyond 2060.

The fate of the remaining 72 aircraft hangs in the balance pending Prime Minister Carney’s decision based on the defense review. Minister of National Defence David McGuinty has indicated that the conclusions of the review would be made public “over the summer,” with Carney confirming at the NATO summit that the review would be finished “by the end of the summer.” When asked about moving forward with the rest of the fleet given the cost increases, McGuinty stated, “We’re going to begin with 16, and then we’ll see where we are.”

The decision carries implications beyond defense procurement. Lieutenant-General Speiser-Blanchet noted that sticking to the original plan “could remove a potential irritant in relations with the United States at a moment when talks on a new trade and security relationship have stalled.” Since winning the election, Carney has “softened his tone, noting that despite U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and cars, Canada is in a good position compared to other nations facing higher tariffs.”

Conclusion and Strategic Implications

Canada’s F-35 program represents a convergence of defense procurement, international relations, industrial policy, and fiscal management challenges that will define the nation’s air power capabilities for decades to come. The defense review’s recommendation to maintain the full 88-aircraft commitment reflects military leadership’s assessment that operational requirements and strategic considerations outweigh the political and economic pressures to diversify suppliers.

As the government prepares to announce its final decision by the end of summer 2025, the convergence of military recommendations, cost concerns, and geopolitical considerations will test Canada’s ability to balance competing priorities while maintaining the air power capabilities essential for continental defense and international obligations. The outcome will establish precedents for defense procurement decision-making that will influence Canadian policy for generations to come.

FAQ

Q: Why is Canada considering alternatives to the F-35?
A: Political leaders have expressed concerns about over-reliance on the U.S. defense industry, cost overruns, and the potential for economic retaliation in the context of trade disputes. European alternatives like the Gripen, Typhoon, and Rafale have been discussed as possible options.

Q: What are the main reasons defense officials recommend sticking with the F-35?
A: Defense officials cite operational advantages, interoperability with NORAD, advanced technology, and the logistical and cost challenges of maintaining a mixed fleet.

Q: How much has the estimated cost of the F-35 program increased?
A: The estimated cost rose from CAD $19 billion in 2023 to CAD $27.7 billion by 2025, with further costs expected for weapons and infrastructure.

Q: What is the timeline for delivery and operational capability?
A: The first 16 F-35s are scheduled for delivery starting in 2026, with full Canadian-based operations expected to begin after 2028, pending infrastructure completion.

Q: How does the F-35 benefit Canadian industry?
A: Over 30 Canadian contractors participate in the global F-35 program, with more than $3.3 billion USD in contracts awarded as of early 2025.

Sources: Reuters