Airlines Strategy
Aviation Industry: RPKs to Grow 25% by 2030 Amid Challenges

Why Airline RPKs Will Increase 25% by 2030
The aviation industry is poised for significant growth, with Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) expected to rise by 25% by 2030. This projection, highlighted in IBA’s January 2025 Market Update webinar, underscores the resilience and recovery of air travel post-pandemic. RPKs, a critical metric measuring the distance traveled by paying passengers, are forecasted to grow from 9.5 trillion in 2025 to 11.9 trillion in 2030, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 4.7%. This growth follows a record-breaking 2024, where RPKs surpassed 9 trillion for the first time, marking a 10.1% increase over pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
However, this optimistic outlook is tempered by economic and supply challenges. Inflation, geopolitical tensions, and delays in aircraft deliveries are among the factors that could hinder growth. Despite these hurdles, the aviation industry is adapting, with airlines maximizing fleet utilization and extending lease agreements to meet rising demand. This article explores the drivers behind the projected RPK growth, the challenges facing the industry, and the implications for airlines and passengers alike.
Strong Growth Drivers: Economic Recovery and Inflation Trends
One of the primary drivers of RPK growth is the gradual easing of inflation, particularly in food and energy prices. While service prices remain high, many economies have already met or exceeded inflation targets, with further reductions expected through 2025 and 2026. Global GDP growth is forecasted to remain steady at 3.3%, with India leading at 6.9%. The USA, supported by robust consumer spending and a resilient job market, is expected to see GDP growth ease from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025. Europe, while lagging, is showing improvement, and China’s GDP is predicted to decline slightly due to ongoing economic restructuring.
Oil prices, a critical factor for airlines, are expected to remain stable in the short to medium term, with supply outpacing demand. However, geopolitical risks, such as the strengthening US dollar and potential trade disputes following the 2024 US elections, could pose challenges. The US dollar’s strength may strain emerging markets and impact non-US airlines, which rely heavily on the currency for fuel, aircraft, and lease payments.
“The strengthening US dollar remains a major concern, as it could hamper US exports, strain emerging markets, and significantly impact non-US airlines.” – IBA
Industry Supply Challenges: Delays and Fleet Utilization
Aircraft delivery delays are another significant challenge for the aviation industry. IBA has revised its 2024 delivery forecast downward, with a full recovery to 2018’s peak delivery levels not expected until early 2027. Total aircraft deliveries fell by 10% in 2024, with Boeing experiencing a 35% reduction. These delays have forced airlines to maximize fleet utilization, particularly for older aircraft. Utilization rates for narrowbodies aged 15–20 years rose by 5.7%, while those aged 20–25 years saw a 7.4% increase compared to 2018 levels.
Aircraft retirements have also decreased, with the percentage of passenger aircraft retired dropping from 2.2% in 2019 to just 0.4% in 2024. This trend reflects operators’ efforts to retain aircraft longer in response to supply challenges. Freighter activity has shown improvement, with inactive aircraft decreasing by 5% by early 2025, while passenger aircraft storage levels have declined modestly.
Value and Lease Rate Impact: Tight Supply Drives Growth
The delays in aircraft deliveries have positively impacted market values and lease rates. New-generation narrowbody aircraft, such as the A320-200neo and B737 MAX 8, are projected to see value increases of 4.1% by January 2026. Similarly, the A321-200neo is expected to rise by 3.4% to US$66.4 million. Lease rates for these models are also forecasted to grow, driven by tight supply and inflation.
Widebody aircraft are experiencing similar trends, with the A350-1000 projected to see a 2.1% increase in market value. Lease rates for mature widebodies, such as the A330-300 and 777-300ER, are also expected to rise, driven by recovering APAC traffic and constrained supply. IBA predicts that 75-80% of leases will be extended through 2026, reflecting the industry’s response to supply challenges.
Airline Capacity and Yields: Balancing Growth and Profitability
Operators significantly increased capacity in 2024, with Available Seat Kilometers (ASKs) rising by 9% compared to 2023. Europe & CIS and Asia-Pacific were the primary drivers of this growth, with United Airlines reporting a 7% increase in ASKs. In 2025, capacity is expected to expand further, particularly in Latin America and APAC, with forecast increases of 8% and 7%, respectively.
However, this capacity growth is likely to be tempered by declining yields. The global operating margin is expected to drop from 8% in 2023 to 6% in 2025, reflecting the challenges of balancing capacity with profitability. IBA’s Operator Score Index indicates a slight decline in overall airline operational performance, with a global weighted average score of 68% for 2024, down from 69% in 2023.
Conclusion
The aviation industry is on a path to recovery, with RPKs projected to grow by 25% by 2030. This growth is driven by economic recovery, stable oil prices, and increasing demand for air travel. However, challenges such as aircraft delivery delays, geopolitical risks, and declining yields highlight the complexities of navigating this growth. Airlines must continue to adapt, maximizing fleet utilization and extending lease agreements to meet rising demand while maintaining profitability.
Looking ahead, the industry must also address sustainability concerns, with Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandates and production capacity playing a crucial role. As the aviation industry evolves, understanding key metrics like RPKs and ASKs will remain essential for making informed decisions and ensuring long-term success.
FAQ
What are RPKs?
Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) measure the number of kilometers traveled by paying passengers, calculated by multiplying the number of revenue passengers by the distance traveled.
Why are RPKs important?
RPKs are a key performance indicator for airlines, helping them assess demand, capacity utilization, and overall performance.
What factors are driving RPK growth?
Economic recovery, stable oil prices, and increasing demand for air travel are the primary drivers of RPK growth.
Sources: Aircraft Interiors International, IATA
Airlines Strategy
KLM Swaps Planned A320s for E195-E2s in 1 Billion Euro Savings Plan
KLM will cut almost another 15% of positions, replace planned A320s with Embraer E195-E2s and phase out its Boeing 737s and E190s.

KLM Royal Dutch Airlines (KL) will cut almost another 15% of its positions, replace planned Airbus A320s with Embraer E195-E2s and phase out its Boeing 737s and Embraer E190s as it seeks an annual earnings improvement of €1 billion, bringing its total improvement target to €1.4 billion. The airline announced the plan on November 5, 2026, the same day KLM Group published its third-quarter results.
KLM said its future scenarios showed that delaying decisions would further limit its options. Third-quarter operating profit rose €106 million to €458 million, yet CFO Bas Brouns said the margin must rise to more than 8%. “Fuel prices continue to put pressure on our results, our cost base remains too high,” said Marjan Rintel, President and CEO of KLM, who added that operations are too vulnerable for the airline to keep investing and competing effectively.
What changes in the European fleet
According to KLM’s press release, the Airbus A321neo stays in the fleet, while Embraer E195-E2 aircraft will replace the A320s it had planned. KLM Cityhopper will play a larger role, and the Boeing 737 and Embraer E190 will be phased out over the coming years. KLM said it will operate a simplified, modernized fleet of 185 Airbus, Boeing and Embraer aircraft and focus capacity on the routes that best support passenger connectivity and its nonstop network of 160 destinations from Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (AMS).
The scale of the change shows in the AirPro Atlas. Since October 9, 2026, the Atlas has recorded 28 Boeing 737-800s, six 737-700s and five 737-900s flying under KLM, and 21 Embraer E190s and 24 E195-E2s flying under KLM Cityhopper. These are aircraft seen flying in that period, not a registered fleet count.
For maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), the Engineering & Maintenance division will focus on the future fleet, speed up the maintenance phaseout for retiring aircraft types, schedule work during existing ground time and improve engine and component shop productivity. Management of Engine Services and Component Services will be aligned more closely with Air France-KLM.
Where the positions go
KLM said about 5,000 positions will be reorganized. Work for 1,250 KLM Catering Services positions has been carried out with gategroup since spring; Air France-KLM’s second-quarter report states that KLM and gategroup completed the acquisition of KLM Catering Services on July 1, 2026, with gategroup holding 75% and KLM 25%, and that the business will keep providing KLM’s catering for 20 years.
About 800 Ground Services positions will move to external providers, who will take over below-the-wing activities at KLM Cityhopper and baggage handling in the East Hall. A further 2,000 positions, including 1,500 at customer contact center Cygnific, will transfer to Air France-KLM, and productivity improvements will eliminate about 1,000 more. KLM said it aims to limit job losses through natural attrition, voluntary arrangements and internal transfers.
KLM Cargo will consolidate all handling in one Schiphol warehouse ahead of a new cargo terminal due in 2035, absorbing growth through simpler processes, automation and redeployment, without new hires. KLM also wants new collective labor agreements, simpler and more competitive employment terms and a structural productivity increase of at least 8% by 2028, with very moderate wage growth.
“It’s painful to transfer activities that have traditionally been part of our company,” Rintel said. She added that inaction would have worse consequences for jobs and national connectivity.
Why KLM says the earlier savings were not enough
KLM said it has already achieved structural improvements of more than €750 million and has largely resolved its shortage of pilots and maintenance staff. Its third-quarter release puts the gains from the Back on Track program at €750 million to date. Over the first nine months of 2026, revenue rose more than 9% to €10.9 billion and operating profit reached €526 million, compared with €328 million a year earlier, on capacity growth of 4.3%.
Air France-KLM’s second-quarter report gives KLM’s margins for earlier periods. It shows KLM with an adjusted operating result of €176 million and an operating margin of 4.5% for the second quarter of 2026, and a margin of 1.0% for the first half. KLM’s aircraft fuel costs, excluding the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), rose 48.8% in the second quarter.
“The third quarter is traditionally our strongest,” Brouns said. He said that even under highly favorable market conditions, “our profit margin remains too low. We need to increase it to more than 8%” to secure the airline’s financial health. In the restructuring release, he said: “We need to make a major leap forward.”
AirPro News analysis
The figures KLM put side by side explain the size of the plan: a €458 million operating profit in the quarter Brouns calls the strongest of the year, against a second-quarter margin of 4.5% and a target above 8%. For lessors and MRO shops, the practical changes sit in the fleet section: Embraer E195-E2s in place of the planned A320s, a bigger operation at KLM Cityhopper and a faster maintenance phaseout for the 737 and E190.
What KLM keeps investing in
KLM said it will keep investing in its network and customer experience, including free high-speed Wi-Fi on intercontinental flights, expanded meal options on European routes and digitalization and AI for booking and efficiency. In a release dated October 30, 2026, on the first A350-900 passenger flight, KL0691 from Schiphol to Toronto, KLM called the arrival of its first A350-900 an important step in its fleet renewal program.
Within the group, certain activities will be performed by external partners, reorganized or consolidated within Air France-KLM, and KLM expects the proposed expansion to include SAS, under review by the European Commission, to create collaboration and economies of scale. Rintel said further changes to the organization, employment conditions, productivity and staffing may still be necessary, and that KLM will hold open dialogue with employee representatives, unions and partners.
Airlines Strategy
Lufthansa Signs Deal for 44.9 Percent Stake in TAP Air Portugal
Lufthansa and Portugal signed the deal for a 44.9 percent TAP Air Portugal stake for 1.025 billion euros, pending European Commission approval.

The Lufthansa Group and the Portuguese government signed an agreement at Humberto Delgado Airport in Lisbon on November 3, 2026, for Lufthansa to acquire an initial 44.9 percent minority stake in TAP Air Portugal for 1.025 billion euros. The transaction still needs approval from the relevant authorities, in particular the European Commission, before it can be completed.
In a press release dated November 3, 2026, the Lufthansa Group called the signing a decisive milestone in TAP’s privatization. The release also puts a figure on the commercial case: Lufthansa estimates the synergies at up to 450 million euros and says a minority stake already allows it to realize most of them.
What the agreement covers
According to the Lufthansa Group, the purchase price for the initial 44.9 percent stake is financed entirely from available liquidity. The stake could rise to up to 49.9 percent through the possible acquisition of shares initially offered to TAP employees. Including a ticking fee, the total purchase price could reach up to 1.2 billion euros.
Carsten Spohr, Chairman of the Executive Board and CEO of Deutsche Lufthansa AG, described the signing in the release:
“Today’s signing is an excellent signal that extends far into our shared future with TAP Air Portugal.”
Spohr said the two networks complement each other and that the partnership opens growth opportunities in Portugal, South America and Brazil, with the aim of developing Lisbon into a Lufthansa Group hub. He also thanked the Portuguese government for its privatization process.
Lisbon as the group’s seventh hub
Lufthansa said its growth plans center on expanding TAP’s network, especially the links between Portugal and Brazil, Portuguese-speaking Africa and North America. Lisbon would become the seventh hub of the Lufthansa Group, and Porto, the Azores, Madeira and the Algarve are also part of the strategy.
The release gives the market share at stake. Lufthansa says its current share of traffic between Europe and Latin America is about nine percent, and that the calculated combined share with TAP would be about 20 percent.
TAP Air Portugal (TP), founded in 1945, is a Star Alliance member, according to its AirPro Atlas profile. The Atlas lists a single runway at Lisbon Humberto Delgado Airport (LIS), runway 02/20, at 12,500 feet. Among the three pillars that Minister of Infrastructure and Housing Miguel Pinto Luz set out for the privatization is an aviation strategy that includes the development of the new Lisbon airport and added airport capacity.
From bid to signing
The signing follows a privatization process that the government says involved two and a half years of preparation. On April 23, 2026, the Council of Ministers invited Air France-KLM and Lufthansa to submit binding offers in the final phase of the privatization. The government said at the time that it intended to sell up to 49.9 percent of TAP’s share capital: 44.9 percent to an investor and up to 5 percent reserved for workers.
The Lufthansa Group submitted its bid to Parpública, the Portuguese state-owned investment company, on July 29, 2026. In a release dated October 14, 2026, Lufthansa welcomed the government’s decision to pick its offer, which AirPro News covered as Portugal’s choice of the Lufthansa bid. In that release, Lufthansa said it expected to sign the acquisition agreements shortly.
The government’s own summary of the decision, dated October 15, 2026, said the operation brings in 1,201 million euros and that the Portuguese State keeps a majority stake of 50.1 percent in TAP. It said Lufthansa’s financial proposal was 16 percent higher than the competing proposal and carried less uncertainty, while the technical proposals and contractual conditions were considered equivalent. The government also said it planned to sign the first-phase documents by the end of 2026.
Fleet and maintenance commitments
The government’s summary lists the commitments in the Lufthansa proposal: TAP’s fleet growing to 117 aircraft by 2035 and 130 after that, with estimated additional investment of 3 to 4 billion euros; the possible transfer of up to eight Airbus A350-900s after 2030; modernisation of the Portugália fleet; and Porto’s Francisco Sá Carneiro Airport becoming a second operating base with eight long-haul aircraft. TAP keeps its brand, its headquarters in Portugal and the Lisbon hub, and remains in Star Alliance.
For maintenance, the government cites about 300 million euros of investment and 700 jobs at the Lufthansa Technik center in Santa Maria da Feira, near Porto. Lufthansa says ground was broken on the site in June and that it is expected to raise the group’s direct jobs in Portugal to more than 1,000 by 2030, from more than 500 professionals working for Lufthansa Group companies in the country. The group’s airlines currently offer 353 weekly flights to six destinations in Portugal, which Lufthansa says is a 75 percent increase compared with 2019.
What comes next
Lufthansa said the transaction will be completed once all required regulatory approvals are received. The government said in October that the regulatory procedures include the European Commission, through its Directorate-General for Competition, and Portugal’s National Civil Aviation Authority (ANAC).
A second phase is also in view. The Lufthansa Group says it expressly welcomes the prospect of a full privatization of TAP and that a majority stake would offer further opportunities to accelerate TAP’s growth and competitiveness. According to the government, a possible second privatization phase, which could proceed by 2028, would include the acquisition of a majority of TAP’s capital, bringing in an additional 863 million euros and a share swap valued at 488 million euros, equal to 5 percent of the combined group. The government estimates that the operation, with share appreciation and future dividends up to 2040, could recover about 3.4 billion euros, against more than 3.2 billion euros of public investment in the airline.
AirPro News analysis
The two parties frame the same deal from different ends. Lufthansa’s case rests on network share: from about nine percent to about 20 percent of traffic between Europe and Latin America, with most of the estimated synergies available from a minority position. The government’s case rests on keeping 50.1 percent now while leaving room for a second phase by 2028 that would include a majority stake for Lufthansa and a share swap equal to 5 percent of the combined group.
For operators, lessors and MRO shops, we see the figures to watch in the fleet and maintenance plan: 117 aircraft by 2035, up to eight A350-900s after 2030, a Porto base with eight long-haul aircraft and the Santa Maria da Feira site. Each of those plans sits behind the regulatory approvals that both Lufthansa and the government list as conditions for completion.
Airlines Strategy
United Airlines Fleet Seen Flying: 1,060 Aircraft in the AirPro Atlas
AirPro Atlas data shows 1,060 United Airlines aircraft seen flying from October 9 to November 4, 2026, 82% of them Boeing jets.

This is original reporting and analysis by AirPro News.
More United Airlines aircraft were seen flying this autumn than those of any other US airline in the AirPro Atlas. Between October 9 and November 4, 2026, receivers in the ADSB.lol network picked up 1,060 individual aircraft flying with United flight numbers, ahead of American Airlines with 1,002 and Delta Air Lines with 957.
That puts United at number 1 of the 77 US airlines the Atlas follows, ranked by aircraft seen flying. Southwest Airlines (772) and SkyWest Airlines (517) complete the top five.
These figures are not United’s registered fleet or an official count. They are the aircraft that ADS-B receivers saw operating United flights during the period, among the airliner types the Atlas follows. Aircraft leased with their crews count for the airline whose flight numbers they fly, and regions with few receivers are undercounted.
A Boeing airline, built around the 737
Of the 1,060 aircraft, 869 were Boeing jets (82.0%) and 191 were Airbus jets (18.0%). No other manufacturer appears in United’s count.
The Boeing 737 family alone accounts for 592 aircraft, or 55.8% of everything seen flying for the airline. The four largest groups are all 737 variants: the 737 MAX 9 (149 aircraft), the 737-900 (146), the 737-800 (136) and the 737 MAX 8 (122). Another 38 were 737-700s.
United’s Airbus flying comes from the A320 family: 67 A321neos, 64 A319s and 60 A320s, 191 aircraft in all.
Widebodies and the 757
Widebody aircraft made up 220 of the total, or 20.8%. The Boeing 787 led with 86 aircraft (53 787-9s, 21 787-10s and 12 787-8s), followed by the 777 with 83 (61 777-200s and 22 777-300ERs) and the 767 with 51 (35 767-300s and 16 767-400s).
The Boeing 757 is still part of the picture: 57 were seen flying for United, 36 of them 757-200s and 21 the longer 757-300. In all, the Atlas counted 18 different aircraft types under United flight numbers.
Eight hubs, one alliance
Wikidata lists eight United hubs: Denver International Airport (DEN), Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD), George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) in Houston, Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD), San Francisco International Airport (SFO) and Antonio B. Won Pat International Airport (GUM) in Hagåtña, Guam. The airline, founded in 1926, flies under the callsign UNITED and is a member of Star Alliance.
AirPro News analysis
The count shows how much of United’s operation rests on a single aircraft family. With 592 of 1,060 aircraft seen flying, the 737 carries more than half of the airline’s activity in the Atlas, and the 737 MAX 9 is the most common type on its own.
The gap at the top of the US market is narrow: United’s 1,060 aircraft against American’s 1,002 and Delta’s 957, so the order could change in a later count as aircraft go in and out of maintenance. Widebodies, at 220 aircraft or 20.8%, are about one in five of the aircraft seen flying for United, and the 787 is the largest widebody group, ahead of the 777.
Explore United’s hubs and fleet on the AirPro Atlas.
-
Technology & Innovation7 days agoArcher Aviation and ITA Airways Partner on Italy eVTOL Network
-
Aircraft Orders & Deliveries2 days agoAvolon Finalizes Record Lessor Order for 140 Boeing 737-10 Jets
-
Regulations & Safety3 days agoSchiphol Airport Traffic Decree Takes Effect With 478,000 Flight Cap
-
MRO & Manufacturing7 days agoI Squared Capital Acquires Orizon Aerostructures for $2 Billion
-
MRO & Manufacturing4 days agoORIX Aviation Completes $640M Acquisition of AerFin


