Commercial Aviation
Global Air Cargo Fleet to Expand 45 Percent by 2044 Forecast
Airbus forecasts a 45% growth in the global freighter fleet by 2044 driven by trade, e-commerce, and fleet modernization.
The global air cargo industry has proven its mettle, serving as a critical backbone for international trade and supply chains, especially during times of unprecedented disruption. Looking ahead, the sector is not just recovering; it’s poised for a period of sustained, long-term growth. This isn’t speculation but the result of deep market analysis from key industry players. We are entering an era where the demand for faster, more reliable shipping, fueled by a digital economy, is reshaping the skies.
According to the latest Airbus 2025-2044 Cargo Global Market Forecast, the world’s dedicated freighter fleet is projected to grow by a remarkable 45%. This expansion translates into a need for thousands of new and converted aircraft over the next two decades. The primary forces propelling this demand are the steady growth of global trade, the unstoppable rise of e-commerce, and a crucial, industry-wide push toward fleet modernization. These factors combined create a clear trajectory for a larger, more efficient, and more capable global air freight network.
In this analysis, we will break down the numbers behind this significant forecast. We will explore the specific drivers of demand, examine the mix of aircraft set to join the global fleet, and map out the regional shifts that will define the future of air cargo. From the dominance of passenger-to-freighter conversions to the rise of new economic powerhouses, the next twenty years promise a dynamic evolution for the industry.
Understanding the future of air cargo begins with the numbers, and the projections paint a clear picture of robust demand. The forecast outlines not just growth, but a fundamental renewal of the global fleet, driven by economic fundamentals and the retirement of older assets.
The headline figure from the Airbus forecast is a projected 45% increase in the global freighter fleet, which is expected to reach 3,420 aircraft by the year 2044. To achieve this, the industry will require an estimated 2,605 additional freighters over the 20-year period. This figure represents the total demand needed to both expand and modernize the world’s air cargo capacity.
Breaking down this demand reveals two distinct but equally important trends. Of the 2,605 freighters needed, 1,075 will be dedicated to accommodating market growth. The larger portion, 1,530 aircraft, will be required to replace aging freighters. This high replacement rate signals a major modernization cycle. Many older aircraft that were kept in service to handle the cargo boom during the pandemic are now slated for retirement, paving the way for a new generation of more efficient and capable planes.
This fleet expansion is underpinned by a solid projection for air cargo traffic, which is forecast to grow at an annual rate of 3.3%. This steady growth is expected to nearly double cargo volumes over the next two decades. The foundation for this optimism lies in core economic indicators, with long-term global trade projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.7%, serving as the primary catalyst for the air cargo sector.
The demand for 2,605 additional freighters will be met through two primary channels: purpose-built, new-build freighters straight from the factory, and passenger aircraft that are converted for cargo operations (P2F). The forecast indicates a clear preference for one of these methods in terms of sheer volume. According to the Airbus projections, P2F conversions will constitute the majority of the fleet additions. An estimated 1,670 converted freighters will be needed by 2044, accounting for over 64% of the total demand. In comparison, 935 new-build freighters are expected to be delivered over the same period. This highlights the critical role that conversions play in the industry’s strategy for scalable and flexible growth.
The popularity of P2F conversions is rooted in their economic and operational advantages. They provide a cost-effective solution for adding capacity by giving a second life to mid-life passenger airframes that might otherwise be retired. This process extends the economic value of the aircraft and allows operators to respond more quickly to market demand. The forecast specifically notes the role of modern airframes like the A320, A321, and A330 families as prime candidates for conversion, alongside new-build models like the A350F, which are designed for maximum efficiency.
A significant portion of older freighters that remained in service during the pandemic-era cargo boom are expected to be retired. These will be replaced by more fuel-efficient, modern aircraft.
While the global numbers are impressive, the future of air cargo will also be defined by where this growth occurs and what specific market segments are driving it. A geographic shift is underway, with established markets continuing to lead while new economic centers emerge. At the same time, the structural impact of e-commerce is fundamentally reshaping logistics networks.
The forecast leaves no doubt about where the bulk of the demand will be concentrated over the next two decades. The Asia-Pacific and North American markets are set to remain the dominant forces in air cargo, together representing nearly two-thirds of the total demand for new freighters. Projections indicate a need for 850 aircraft in the Asia-Pacific region and 920 in North America.
The sustained dominance of these regions is driven by their unique economic roles. The Asia-Pacific region continues to be a global industrial powerhouse, driving demand for the transport of finished goods and components. North America, meanwhile, remains a massive consumer market with robust import and express shipping needs. This transatlantic and transpacific trade will continue to form the bedrock of global air freight.
However, the story doesn’t end there. The forecast also anticipates a diversification of global trade lanes. As new industrial centers emerge within the Asia-Pacific region, trade routes will become more complex and intra-regional traffic will grow. Furthermore, countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Vietnam are identified as rising consumer economies, which will reshape the global air freight map by creating new demand hubs for both imports and exports.
If there is one trend that has become a permanent, structural driver of air cargo growth, it is e-commerce. The consumer expectation for fast, reliable delivery of goods purchased online has created a massive and growing demand for air freight capacity, particularly for express carriers.
Competitor analysis from Boeing’s World Air Cargo Forecast supports this view, projecting that express carriers will significantly increase their share of the air cargo market from 18% today to 25% by 2043. This reflects a fundamental shift in logistics, where speed is paramount and air cargo is the only viable option for meeting tight delivery windows across long distances. The impact of e-commerce is particularly pronounced in emerging markets with large, digitally-savvy populations. For instance, Boeing’s forecast highlights India’s domestic air cargo market, which is projected to nearly quadruple in the coming years. This explosive growth is a direct result of a burgeoning middle class and widespread internet access, creating a template that is likely to be replicated in other developing economies and further fueling the need for both small and mid-size freighters.
The outlook for the global air cargo industry is one of confidence and transformation. The consensus among major forecasts points to a sustained, long-term growth trajectory powered by the foundational pillars of global trade and the digital economy. The next two decades will be defined not only by a significant expansion of the world’s freighter fleet but, more importantly, by a comprehensive modernization that will make it more efficient and capable.
Looking forward, the industry’s evolution will be shaped by key trends. The strategic shift toward more fuel-efficient aircraft, whether through new-builds like the A350F or modern P2F conversions, addresses both economic and sustainability goals. This fleet renewal is happening alongside a geographic rebalancing, as trade lanes diversify and new consumer markets emerge. Air cargo is proving itself to be a dynamic and resilient industry, adapting to new economic realities and positioning itself to support the next generation of global commerce.
Question: How much is the global freighter fleet expected to grow? Question: What are the main drivers of this growth? Question: Will most new freighters be new-builds or conversions? Question: Which regions will see the most growth in demand for freighters? Sources: Airbus
The Future of Air Cargo: A 45% Fleet Expansion by 2044
The Numbers Behind the Growth: A Two-Decade Forecast
Projected Fleet Expansion and Traffic Growth
The Mix of Aircraft: New Builds vs. Conversions
Mapping the Future: Regional Growth and E-Commerce’s Impact
The Shifting Center of Gravity in Air Cargo
E-commerce: The Unstoppable Engine
Conclusion: A Resilient and Evolving Industry
FAQ
Answer: According to the Airbus 2025-2044 forecast, the global freighter fleet is predicted to grow by 45%, reaching a total of 3,420 aircraft by 2044.
Answer: The primary drivers are the continued expansion of global trade and GDP, the structural growth of e-commerce, and a significant fleet renewal cycle requiring the replacement of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft.
Answer: Passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions are expected to make up the majority of additions, with forecasts calling for 1,670 conversions compared to 935 new-build freighters over the next 20 years.
Answer: Asia-Pacific and North America are projected to be the largest markets, together accounting for nearly two-thirds of the total demand for new and converted freighters.
Photo Credit: Envato
Route Development
Chicago O’Hare Launches Orchard-Inspired Concourse D Expansion
O’Hare International Airport’s $1.3B Concourse D with orchard-inspired design and 19 flexible gates is set to open in late 2028.
This article is based on an official press release from the City of Chicago.
On Thursday, February 5, 2026, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and the Chicago Department of Aviation (CDA) released a detailed animated preview of “The New Concourse D” at O’Hare International Airports. Formerly known as Satellite Concourse 1, this $1.3 billion infrastructure project represents a pivotal phase in the airport’s massive ORDNext expansion program.
According to the official announcement, the new facility is currently under construction following a groundbreaking ceremony in August 2025. Scheduled to open to the public in late 2028, Concourse D is designed to modernize the passenger experience with a focus on wellness, natural light, and operational flexibility. The project is being led by the architectural firm Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (SOM), alongside partners Ross Barney Architects and Juan Gabriel Moreno Architects (JGMA).
The newly released video highlights a dramatic shift in design philosophy for the airport, moving away from industrial aesthetics toward a “nature-infused” environment that pays homage to the site’s history.
The central theme of the new concourse is a direct nod to O’Hare’s pre-aviation history as an apple orchard, originally known as Orchard Field, which gave the airport its “ORD” IATA code. The City of Chicago press release details how the interior architecture features tree-like structural columns that branch out to support the roof, creating a canopy effect intended to reduce travel stress.
A key feature of the design is the “Oculus,” a central skylight that serves as the building’s architectural focal point. The design team emphasizes that this feature is not merely aesthetic but functional, directing natural daylight deep into the building to aid in intuitive wayfinding.
“We designed the new satellite concourse to create a frictionless experience for travelers… The gate lounges feature column-free expanses for easy wayfinding, high ceilings to optimize views, and a daylighting strategy to help align the body’s natural rhythms.”
, Scott Duncan, Design Partner at SOM
The facility will include over 20,000 square feet of airline lounge space and 30,000 square feet dedicated to retail and concessions. In a move to accommodate modern traveler needs, the design also incorporates a dedicated children’s play area and multi-level communal seating equipped with integrated charging stations. Beyond the aesthetics, Concourse D is a critical component of the broader ORDNext (formerly O’Hare 21) capital program. The expansion is necessary to maintain O’Hare’s status as a global hub by increasing gate capacity and flexibility.
According to the CDA, the concourse will add 19 new flexible gates to the airport’s portfolio. These gates are designed with versatility in mind, capable of accommodating:
This flexibility allows the airport to adjust to shifting market demands between domestic and international travel without requiring physical construction changes.
“By breaking ground on Concourse D, we are taking a critical first step toward enhancing how the airport welcomes and serves more than 80 million passengers each year.”
, Michael McMurray, CDA Commissioner
Mayor Brandon Johnson emphasized the economic impact of the project, noting that it serves as an economic engine for the region. The city estimates the project will create approximately 3,800 construction jobs.
The rebranding of “Satellite 1” to “Concourse D” and the release of this high-fidelity animation signal a clear intent by Chicago officials to solidify the project’s identity before the steel rises significantly. By leaning heavily into the “Orchard” narrative, the CDA is attempting to differentiate O’Hare from other sterile, glass-and-steel global hubs.
From an operational standpoint, the “flexible gate” configuration is the most significant detail. As airline fleets evolve and the mix between wide-body international haulers and narrow-body domestic hoppers fluctuates, static gates can become liabilities. The ability to park two narrow-bodies in the footprint of one wide-body maximizes the return on Investments for this $1.3 billion asset, ensuring it remains relevant regardless of how airline strategies shift in the 2030s.
The project is currently active, with construction managed by the joint venture AECOM Hunt Clayco Bowa. The timeline provided by the city outlines the following key milestones:
Concourse D is located just south of the existing Concourse C (Terminal 1) and will be connected via a new walkway extension. It serves as the precursor to the eventual demolition of Terminal 2, which will make way for the future O’Hare Global Terminal.
Where is the new Concourse D located? When will Concourse D open? Why is it called the “Orchard” design? How much will the project cost?
O’Hare Unveils “Orchard-Inspired” Vision for New Concourse D
Design Philosophy: Returning to the Orchard
Operational Capacity and ORDNext Strategy
AirPro News Analysis
Timeline and Next Steps
Frequently Asked Questions
It is located directly south of the existing Concourse C at Terminal 1. It will be connected to the main terminal complex via a new walkway extension.
The City of Chicago and the Chicago Department of Aviation have scheduled the opening for late 2028.
The design pays tribute to “Orchard Field,” the original name of the airfield that became O’Hare. The interior columns resemble trees, and the layout emphasizes nature and light.
The budget for Concourse D is set at $1.3 billion.
Sources
Photo Credit: City of Chicago
Aircraft Orders & Deliveries
EgyptAir Receives First Airbus A350-900 to Modernize Fleet
EgyptAir accepts its first Airbus A350-900, starting a fleet overhaul with 16 aircraft to expand long-haul routes and improve efficiency.
This article is based on an official press release from Airbus and additional fleet data.
EgyptAir has officially taken delivery of its first Airbus A350-900, registered as SU-GGE, marking a significant milestone in the carrier’s modernization strategy. The handover, which took place on February 9, 2026, positions the Cairo-based airline as the first operator of the A350-900 in North Africa.
According to an official press release from Airbus, this aircraft is the first of 16 A350-900s ordered by the Egyptian flag carrier. The delivery underscores EgyptAir’s commitment to phasing out older wide-body jets while expanding its long-haul network capabilities to new destinations in North America and Asia.
The arrival of the A350-900 represents a pivotal shift in EgyptAir’s long-haul operations. The airline originally signed for 10 aircraft during the Dubai Airshow in November 2023, later expanding the commitment with a top-up order for six additional units. These new airframes are intended to replace the carrier’s aging Boeing 777-300ER fleet, offering improved operating economics and passenger comfort.
In a statement regarding the initial order, Yehia Zakaria, EgyptAir Holding Chairman and CEO, highlighted the flagship status of the new type:
“The A350-900 will be our flagship aircraft… adding the world’s most modern and efficient widebody aircraft to our fleet will be instrumental in expanding our offering.”
Christian Scherer, Chief Commercial Officer at Airbus, noted the economic advantages the aircraft brings to the airline’s network:
“The A350 is the one and only aircraft enabling EgyptAir to open up its network with benchmark economic efficiency, not to mention passenger comfort.”
EgyptAir has outlined a phased entry-into-service plan for the new fleet. Initially, the aircraft will be deployed on trunk routes to London and Paris to facilitate crew familiarization. Following this integration period, the airline plans to leverage the A350’s 9,700 nautical mile range to launch non-stop services to the U.S. West Coast and key Asian markets, including Shanghai, Beijing, and Tokyo.
The new A350-900 features a two-class configuration designed to maximize capacity while introducing updated premium amenities. According to fleet data, the aircraft accommodates a total of 340 passengers. Technological upgrades are a focal point of the new cabin. The aircraft is equipped with Panasonic Avionics’ Astrova in-flight entertainment system, providing 4K OLED screens and high-fidelity audio. Additionally, passengers across all classes will have access to USB-C fast charging ports and high-speed Wi-Fi connectivity.
The transition to the A350-900 aligns with broader industry sustainability goals. Powered by two Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines, the aircraft is reported to burn 25% less fuel compared to the previous generation aircraft it replaces. This efficiency gain corresponds to a 25% reduction in CO2 emissions.
Furthermore, the A350 is recognized as the quietest aircraft in its class, possessing a noise footprint 50% smaller than older jets, a critical factor for operations at noise-sensitive airports in Europe and North America.
EgyptAir’s delivery secures its position as the sole active operator of the A350-900 in the North African region, a status solidified by the shifting strategies of its neighbors. While other carriers in the region had previously expressed interest in the type, market dynamics have led to cancellations and delays.
For instance, Air Algérie cancelled its order for A350-1000s in early 2025, opting instead for Airbus A330-900neos. Similarly, Tunisair cancelled its A350 commitments in 2013. Other regional orders, such as those from Libyan carriers Afriqiyah Airways and Libyan Airlines, remain stalled due to long-standing instability. Consequently, EgyptAir currently faces no direct regional competition operating this specific airframe, potentially offering it a product advantage on competitive routes connecting Africa to Europe and the Americas.
Sources:
EgyptAir Accepts Delivery of First Airbus A350-900, Initiating Major Fleet Overhaul
Fleet Modernization and Strategic Expansion
Operational Deployment
Cabin Configuration and Passenger Experience
Environmental Performance
AirPro News Analysis: Regional Market Context
Airbus Press Release
Photo Credit: Airbus
Route Development
SAS and TAROM Codeshare Connects Scandinavia and Romania in 2026
SAS and TAROM announce a codeshare agreement effective February 2026, enhancing connectivity between Scandinavia and Romania with SkyTeam benefits.
This article is based on an official press release from SAS Group.
Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) and TAROM, the flag carrier of Romania, have announced a comprehensive codeshare agreement set to commence on February 9, 2026. The partnership aims to restore and enhance connectivity between Northern Europe and Romania following SAS’s strategic shift to the SkyTeam alliance.
According to the official announcement from SAS Group, the agreement will allow passengers to book single-ticket journeys between the two regions by utilizing major European transit hubs. This move integrates TAROM, a long-standing SkyTeam member, more deeply with SAS, which officially joined the alliance on September 1, 2024.
The collaboration addresses a significant gap in network connectivity, offering business and leisure travelers seamless baggage check-through and reciprocal loyalty benefits. Paul Verhagen, EVP & Chief Commercial Officer at SAS, emphasized the strategic value of the deal in a statement:
“This new partnership with TAROM marks an important step in enhancing connectivity between Scandinavia and Romania. By combining our networks and offering smooth transfers via key European hubs, we are giving our customers more choice, flexibility, and convenience.”
Rather than launching direct flights immediately, the airlines are leveraging a “virtual hub” strategy. According to the press release, the codeshare will route traffic through four key intermediate airports: Amsterdam (AMS), Brussels (BRU), Frankfurt (FRA), and Prague (PRG).
Under the terms of the agreement:
This structure allows the airlines to offer competitive travel times and frequency without dedicating aircraft to direct point-to-point routes, which are currently dominated by low-cost carriers.
This agreement is a direct consequence of the major airline alliance realignment that occurred in late 2024. When SAS departed Star Alliance to join SkyTeam, it lost its traditional connectivity to Eastern Europe provided by partners like Lufthansa and Austrian Airlines. Partnering with TAROM allows SAS to rebuild its footprint in the region using SkyTeam infrastructure.
For TAROM, the deal unlocks access to the high-yield Scandinavian market. The Romanian carrier is currently in the midst of a fleet modernization program, transitioning from aging aircraft to new Boeing 737 MAX 8 jets expected to arrive in late 2025 and 2026. By utilizing SAS for the northern leg of the journey, TAROM can expand its network reach while conserving its own metal for other high-demand routes. Narcis Obeadă, Commercial Director at TAROM, hinted at further expansion in the company’s statement:
“In the coming period, TAROM will announce new commercial agreements, in line with the company’s mission to safely and efficiently connect Romania and Romanian culture to the international air transport network.”
Travelers utilizing the codeshare will benefit from the full suite of SkyTeam alliance perks. Members of SAS EuroBonus and TAROM’s loyalty program will be able to earn and redeem points on these codeshare flights. Additionally, premium passengers will gain access to SkyTeam lounges at transit hubs.
The passenger experience on the SAS leg of these journeys is also set for an upgrade. SAS is currently rolling out free high-speed Starlink WiFi across its fleet, a project the airline states will be widely available by late 2025.
The “Prague” Anomaly and Market Positioning
The inclusion of Prague (PRG) as a connection hub is a notable operational detail. Following the cessation of operations by Czech Airlines (CSA) as a standalone SkyTeam member in October 2024, Prague is no longer a primary alliance hub. The decision to route traffic through PRG suggests a strong bilateral interline capability between SAS and TAROM that functions independently of major alliance hub infrastructure.
Furthermore, this deal clearly targets the premium business segment. While low-cost carrier Wizz Air operates direct flights between Bucharest and Copenhagen, legacy carriers cannot compete purely on price. Instead, SAS and TAROM are competing on schedule flexibility (multiple daily frequencies via hubs) and corporate perks (lounge access, baggage interlining). With tourism to Romania rising, foreign arrivals were up 13.4% year-on-year as of August 2024, the demand for reliable, full-service connectivity is likely to grow.
When can I book these codeshare flights? Will my bags be checked through to the final destination? Do these flights count toward SkyTeam Elite status?
SAS and TAROM Launch Strategic Codeshare to Connect Scandinavia and Romania
Operational Details: The Virtual Hub Strategy
RO marketing code on SAS flights connecting Copenhagen, Oslo, and Stockholm to these intermediate hubs.SK marketing code on TAROM flights connecting Bucharest to the same hubs.Strategic Context: The SkyTeam Realignment
Passenger Experience and Loyalty
AirPro News Analysis
Frequently Asked Questions
The codeshare agreement is effective starting February 9, 2026. Tickets should be available through both airlines’ booking channels prior to this date.
Yes. Because this is a full codeshare agreement, passengers traveling on a single ticket (e.g., Bucharest to Stockholm via Amsterdam) will have their baggage checked through to the final destination.
Yes. Flights marketed and operated by SkyTeam members (SAS and TAROM) count toward tier status and accrue redeemable miles/points according to the rules of your specific loyalty program.
Sources
Photo Credit: SAS Group
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