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IATA 2025 Report: Aviation Growth and $11B Supply Chain Impact

IATA reports 5.3% global air traffic growth in 2025 with record load factors amid an $11 billion supply chain crisis affecting airlines.

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This article is based on an official press release from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

IATA 2025 Report: Record Load Factors Mask $11 Billion Supply-Chain Crisis

The global aviation industry returned to historical growth patterns in 2025, posting a 5.3% increase in total traffic compared to the previous year. According to data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the year was characterized by robust passenger demand and record-breaking efficiency, yet severely hampered by a persistent supply chain crisis that cost Airlines an estimated $11 billion.

While the post-pandemic surge has normalized, the industry faces a new set of challenges. IATA reports that the Passenger Load Factor (PLF), a measure of how full planes are, reached an all-time high of 83.6%. This record reflects a dual reality: strong consumer desire to travel and a forced constraint on capacity due to delivery delays of new Commercial-Aircraft and engines.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh emphasized that while demand remains resilient, the inability to expand fleets has created significant operational and financial headwinds. “2025 saw demand for air travel grow by 5.3%,” Walsh noted in the press release. “This returns industry growth to align with historical growth patterns after the robust post-COVID rebound.”

The $11 Billion Supply Chain “Headache”

The defining narrative of 2025 was not just passenger growth, but the struggle to service it. IATA identified supply chain failures as the industry’s most critical challenge, estimating the financial impact at over $11 billion for the year. Airlines were forced to fly older, less efficient aircraft and pay premiums for short-term solutions.

According to IATA’s breakdown, the costs of these delays were distributed across several key areas:

  • Excess Fuel: $4.2 billion (due to operating older, less fuel-efficient fleets).
  • Maintenance: $3.1 billion (keeping aging aircraft in service longer than planned).
  • Engine Leasing: $2.6 billion (shortages forced expensive lease agreements).
  • Inventory: $1.4 billion (stockpiling spare parts to mitigate delays).

“The supply chain challenges were the biggest headache for airlines in 2025. People clearly wanted to travel more, but airlines were continually disappointed with unreliable delivery schedules… and resultant cost increases that are estimated to exceed $11 billion.”

— Willie Walsh, IATA Director General

Walsh expressed hope that 2025 would represent the “nadir” of these issues, with a rebound in deliveries expected in 2026. He stressed that every new aircraft Delivery contributes to a “quieter, cleaner fleet,” aligning with both airline efficiency goals and customer expectations.

Regional Performance: Africa Leads, North-America Lags

The IATA report highlights a significant divergence in regional performance. While global traffic rose by 5.3%, regional growth rates varied dramatically, driven by local economic conditions and connectivity improvements.

Africa and Asia-Pacific Surge

Africa emerged as the top performer for growth, with traffic rising 9.4% year-over-year. The region also achieved a record load factor of 74.9%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points, though it remains the lowest globally. Asia-Pacific followed closely with a 7.8% increase in traffic, driven by a massive 10.9% jump in international demand as travel in the region continued to normalize.

North America and the US Contraction

In stark contrast, North America recorded the slowest growth of any region at just 0.4%. IATA data reveals that the US domestic market actually contracted by 0.6%. Despite this stagnation, North American carriers maintained a high load factor of 83.9%, suggesting that capacity management remained tight even as demand softened.

AirPro News Analysis: The US Market Signal

The contraction in the US domestic market is a critical signal within the IATA data. While a 0.6% decline may seem minor, it stands out against the backdrop of global growth. We believe this contraction likely stems from a combination of economic cooling and high ticket prices resulting from the very capacity shortages IATA describes. When airlines cannot add seats, prices inevitably rise, potentially pricing out price-sensitive domestic leisure travelers. Furthermore, the disparity between the US domestic contraction and the strong international growth suggests a shift in consumer preference toward long-haul travel over domestic trips.

Capacity Constraints and the “New Normal”

The record global Passenger Load Factor of 83.6% (+0.1 ppt from 2024) indicates that airlines are utilizing their existing assets to the absolute limit. Total capacity (measured in Available Seat Kilometers, or ASK) grew by 5.2%, slightly lagging behind the 5.3% growth in demand. This tight margin left little room for error in operations.

Other regions showed steady performance:

  • Latin America: Traffic grew approximately 8.6%, bolstered by strong domestic markets like Brazil (+11.1%).
  • Middle East: Traffic rose 6.7%, with a load factor of 81.6%.
  • Europe: Traffic increased 5.3%, perfectly aligning with the global average, while maintaining high load factors around 84%.

Decarbonization and Policy Challenges

Beyond operational metrics, IATA raised concerns regarding the industry’s transition to net-zero. The report describes current EU targets for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) adoption, specifically the goal of 20% by 2035, as “not achievable” under current production levels. IATA is calling on governments to shift focus from penalizing airlines to providing fiscal incentives for energy producers to scale up SAF production.

AirPro News Analysis: Efficiency vs. Necessity

The record load factor of 83.6% is often celebrated as a metric of efficiency, but in the context of 2025, it appears to be a metric of necessity. Airlines did not simply choose to fill planes to this level; the supply chain crisis left them with no other option. While high load factors improve unit economics, they also reduce operational resilience. When flights are 100% full, re-accommodating passengers during disruptions becomes mathematically impossible, leading to the compounding delays travelers experienced throughout the year.

FAQ: IATA 2025 Market Analysis

What was the global passenger growth rate in 2025?
Global passenger traffic (RPK) grew by 5.3% compared to 2024.
How much did supply chain delays cost airlines?
IATA estimates the total cost of supply chain issues, including excess fuel, maintenance, and leasing, exceeded $11 billion in 2025.
Which region saw the highest growth?
Africa led all regions with a 9.4% increase in passenger traffic.
Why did the US domestic market shrink?
The US domestic market contracted by 0.6%. While IATA cites this as a drag on North American performance, it likely reflects capacity constraints and shifting consumer preferences toward international travel.

Sources: International Air Transport Association (IATA)

Photo Credit: IATA

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Industry Analysis

Acrisure London Wholesale Launches Dedicated Aviation Division

Acrisure London Wholesale launches a new Aviation Division led by Jonny Rowling to strengthen specialty aviation insurance in the London market.

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This article is based on an official press release from Acrisure.

On March 23, 2026, Acrisure London Wholesale (ALW) officially announced the launch of a dedicated Aviation Division. According to a company press release, this strategic move aims to bolster the global fintech and insurance broker’s specialty capabilities within the London market, providing a critical link between its retail clients and complex wholesale placements.

The new division is spearheaded by Jonny Rowling, who assumed the role of Senior Vice President and Head of Aviation on March 16, 2026. Rowling brings over 15 years of industry experience to the position, having previously served as Co-Head of General Aviation and Placement Leader at Marsh, following a seven-year tenure at Lockton.

We note that this launch represents a significant step in Acrisure’s broader strategy to connect its expansive US-based retail operations with the specialized underwriting capacity of the London wholesale market.

Strategic Expansion in the London Wholesale Market

ALW operates as the wholesale arm of Acrisure, placing complex risks through Lloyd’s of London and other London company markets on behalf of intermediaries. The addition of the Aviation Division follows closely on the heels of ALW’s new Construction Division, which launched in February 2026 under the leadership of another former Lockton executive, Tom Hester.

Acrisure has experienced massive global growth over the past decade. Company data indicates revenue has surged from $38 million to nearly $5 billion over the last 11 years. Following a $2.1 billion funding round led by Bain Capital in May 2025, the brokerage reached a valuation of $32 billion and currently employs over 19,000 people across 24 countries.

Leadership and Talent Acquisition

The build-out of ALW’s specialty desks is being overseen by Managing Director Tom Quy, who emphasized the importance of bringing in specialized talent to navigate the complexities of the global aviation sector.

“Jonny’s appointment reflects our continued investment in building specialist capabilities within Acrisure London Wholesale. Aviation is a dynamic and globally connected market, and Jonny brings deep expertise and strong relationships that will enable us to develop a compelling proposition…”

— Tom Quy, Managing Director, ALW (via company press release)

Navigating a Hardening Aviation Insurance Market

The launch of ALW’s aviation desk coincides with a highly transitional and hardening period for the aviation insurance sector. According to a January 2026 landscape report by Willis Towers Watson (WTW), insurers are targeting rate increases of approximately 10% for “clean” aviation risks this year, with steeper hikes expected for distressed accounts.

Furthermore, Gallagher Specialty’s Plane Talking Q4 2025 report highlighted that 2025 was a particularly challenging year for the market. Premium adequacy has been strained by consecutive loss-making years and major incidents, including the total loss of a UPS Airlines MD-11 in November 2025. Industry data also points to soaring maintenance and repair operations (MRO) costs, which have surged by roughly 39% over the past three years due to material shortages, workforce scarcity, and exclusive original equipment manufacturer (OEM) servicing.

In addition to rising costs, the market is grappling with emerging liability challenges, including geopolitical volatility, cybersecurity threats, and technological disruptions from advanced air mobility such as drones and electric aircraft.

“I’m excited to join ALW at such a pivotal stage in its growth. The opportunity to establish and expand a dedicated aviation practice within Acrisure’s global network is an incredible opportunity. There is significant potential to deliver innovative solutions to clients across the aviation sector…”

— Jonny Rowling, SVP, Head of Aviation, ALW

Bridging Retail and Wholesale Operations

The new London-based division is designed to work in tandem with Acrisure Aerospace, the company’s retail aviation group. Launched in February 2024 and led by Managing Director Jason Riley, Acrisure Aerospace consolidated several partner agencies to serve direct clients domestically in the US and internationally.

By establishing a dedicated wholesale division, Acrisure aims to provide a holistic offering that covers everything from light aircraft to commercial fleets and complex aerospace placements.

“Jonny’s addition strengthens the connection between ALW’s new aviation division and Acrisure Aerospace, expanding our capabilities and bringing a more holistic aerospace offering to clients worldwide.”

— Jason Riley, Managing Director, Acrisure Aerospace

AirPro News analysis

We view Acrisure’s latest expansion as a calculated effort to “close the loop” in its aviation placement process. By establishing a heavy-hitting wholesale desk in London, the world’s premier market for complex aviation risk, Acrisure can now seamlessly funnel the retail business it generates in the US directly into Lloyd’s of London. This allows the brokerage to keep more of the placement process, and the associated revenue, in-house.

Furthermore, ALW’s aggressive talent acquisition strategy, evidenced by recruiting top-tier executives from legacy brokers like Marsh and Lockton, signals a clear ambition to disrupt the London specialty market. Launching this division during a hard market is timely; with premiums rising and capacity tightening, clients are actively seeking the innovative broking solutions that Acrisure is positioning itself to provide.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Acrisure London Wholesale’s new division?

Acrisure London Wholesale (ALW) has launched a new specialist Aviation Division to place complex aviation risks through Lloyd’s of London and other London company markets.

Who is leading the new Aviation Division?

Jonny Rowling has been appointed as Senior Vice President and Head of Aviation. He brings over 15 years of experience, having previously held senior roles at Marsh and Lockton.

Why are aviation insurance premiums rising in 2026?

According to industry reports from WTW and Gallagher Specialty, premiums are rising due to consecutive loss-making years, major aircraft incidents in 2025, and a roughly 39% surge in maintenance and repair (MRO) costs over the past three years.


Sources:

Photo Credit: Acrisure

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Industry Analysis

Crestone Air Partners Acquires Arena Aviation Capital Managing $4B Assets

Crestone Air Partners acquires Arena Aviation Capital in a $35M deal, creating a combined aviation asset manager with over $4 billion in assets.

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This article is based on an official press release from Crestone Air Partners.

Introduction

In a significant move for the global aviation asset management sector, Denver-based Crestone Air Partners announced a definitive agreement to acquire Amsterdam-based Arena Aviation Capital. According to the official press release issued on March 8–9, 2026, the acquisition will create a combined entity managing over US$4 billion in aviation assets.

Crestone Air Partners, which is majority-owned by Air T, Inc. (NASDAQ: AIRT), aims to merge its strong North American presence with Arena’s established European and international footprint. The consolidation reflects a growing industry trend where asset managers are scaling up to offer comprehensive, full-lifecycle services ranging from acquisition and leasing to asset management and remarketing.

The newly combined organization will oversee a portfolio encompassing approximately 124 aircraft and 17 engines on lease globally. By integrating their operations, the two firms will support a combined workforce of over 55 employees operating across five countries, positioning the platform for aggressive international growth.

Transaction Details and Financial Scope

Purchase Price and Contingencies

According to the transaction details provided in the announcement, the cash deal is valued at an aggregate consideration exceeding $35 million. This figure remains subject to customary post-closing adjustments for debt and transaction expenses. Furthermore, the agreement outlines potential contingent payments directed to certain Arena depositary receipt holders, which are tied to collections under specified servicing agreements.

The transaction is currently subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals. Crestone Air Partners was advised on the deal by Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP serving as legal counsel, Kroll, LLC acting as financial advisor, and PwC handling tax matters.

Parent Company Financial Maneuvering

The acquisition is particularly notable given the financial context of Crestone’s parent company, Air T, Inc. Based on financial data accompanying the announcement, Air T currently carries a market capitalization of approximately $56.49 million alongside a total debt load of roughly $211.67 million. To support this aggressive expansion and reshape its capital structure, Air T and Crestone are reportedly in preliminary discussions to sell a minority equity stake in Crestone to a third party.

Strategic Synergies and Global Expansion

Combining Portfolios and Expertise

The strategic rationale behind the acquisition centers on complementary portfolios and expanded global reach. Arena Aviation Capital brings a highly experienced team and deep technical expertise that aligns seamlessly with Crestone’s lifecycle-focused investment strategy. Historically, Arena has operated as an “independent and unbiased” manager, meaning the firm did not hold aircraft on its own balance sheet, thereby mitigating conflicts of interest for its investors.

Following the integration, the combined organization will maintain primary offices in Denver, Amsterdam, and Dublin. To ensure localized support for airline customers and capital partners across multiple time zones, the firm will also operate satellite presences in Singapore and Buenos Aires. Crestone has stated its intention to integrate Arena’s management team into key roles to preserve institutional expertise and long-standing airline relationships.

Executives from both companies expressed optimism regarding the merger’s potential to deliver durable value to investors and airline partners alike.

“This transaction is a natural strategic fit and reflects our belief that the industry benefits from disciplined consolidation. Global coverage and scaled capital are essential to delivering durable value. Arena brings a highly respected team, with an excellent track record, strong technical capabilities, and long-standing relationships with aircraft owners and airlines.”

, Kevin Milligan, CEO and Co-Founder of Crestone Air Partners, via company press release

“For Arena, this transaction marks an important milestone following more than a decade of building the business. I am immensely proud of what my partners and our team have achieved, growing Arena into a trusted and respected aircraft lease management platform. We believe joining Crestone is the right next chapter…”

, Patrick den Elzen, CEO of Arena Aviation Capital, via company press release

Company Backgrounds

Crestone Air Partners and Air T, Inc.

Headquartered in Denver, Colorado, Crestone Air Partners is a full-service aviation asset management platform that invests in commercial jet aircraft and engines on behalf of capital partners. The firm was formed in July 2022 as a spin-off from Air T’s subsidiary, Contrail Aviation Support, LLC. In August 2025, Crestone expanded its market presence by forming a major joint venture named Blue Crest Aviation Partners with funds managed by Blue Owl Capital, targeting the acquisition of mid-life commercial jet aircraft.

Its parent company, Air T, Inc., was established in 1980 and operates as a holding company with a diverse portfolio spanning overnight air cargo, aviation ground support equipment manufacturing, and commercial aircraft asset management.

Arena Aviation Capital

Founded in 2014 and headquartered in Amsterdam, Arena Aviation Capital is a full-service aircraft investment management company. The firm focuses on the complete lifecycle of acquiring and leasing used commercial aviation assets, building a reputation over the past decade as a trusted platform for investor clients.

AirPro News analysis

We observe that this acquisition highlights a broader, accelerating wave of consolidation within the aviation asset management sector. As the market for mid-to-end-of-life aircraft becomes increasingly competitive, asset managers are finding it necessary to merge in order to achieve the scale required to offer end-to-end services, from initial financing to final disassembly.

Furthermore, the financial mechanics of this deal present a fascinating study in corporate growth strategy. Air T, Inc. is operating with a significant debt burden relative to its market capitalization. By actively exploring the sale of a minority equity stake in Crestone, Air T is demonstrating a willingness to creatively manage its capital structure to fund the aggressive scaling of its most lucrative divisions. If successful, this dual approach of acquiring complementary assets while bringing in third-party equity could serve as a blueprint for other mid-sized aviation holding companies navigating a capital-intensive industry.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is the total value of the assets managed by the combined company?
According to the press release, the newly combined entity will manage over US$4 billion in aviation assets.

How many aircraft and engines are included in the combined portfolio?
The combined portfolio encompasses approximately 124 aircraft and 17 engines currently on lease globally.

Where will the new company be headquartered?
The combined organization will maintain primary offices in Denver, Amsterdam, and Dublin, with satellite offices in Singapore and Buenos Aires.

How much is Crestone Air Partners paying for Arena Aviation Capital?
The cash deal is valued at an aggregate consideration exceeding $35 million, subject to customary post-closing adjustments, alongside potential contingent payments.


Sources:

Photo Credit: Crestone Air Partners

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Industry Analysis

Tenax Aerospace to Go Public via Reverse Merger with Air Industries Group

Tenax Aerospace will acquire Air Industries Group in a reverse merger, creating a combined aerospace platform with projected 2026 revenue over $210 million.

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This article is based on an official press release from Air Industries Group and Tenax Aerospace.

Tenax Aerospace to Go Public via Strategic Reverse Merger with Air Industries Group

On February 17, 2026, Tenax Aerospace Acquisition, LLC and Air Industries Group (NYSE American: AIRI) announced a definitive merger agreement that will reshape the landscape for both entities. Structured as a reverse merger, the transaction will see the privately held Tenax Aerospace effectively acquire the publicly traded Air Industries Group. The combined entity aims to establish a diversified, mid-cap aerospace and defense platform, blending special mission aviation services with precision manufacturing capabilities.

According to the announcement, the combined company will retain the Air Industries Group name and continue trading on the NYSE American exchange under the ticker symbol AIRI. The deal is expected to close before June 30, 2026, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.

Transaction Details and Financial Structure

The agreement outlines an all-stock transaction that heavily favors the acquiring private entity. Post-merger, Tenax shareholders are set to own approximately 95% of the combined company, while existing Air Industries shareholders will retain roughly 5%. This structure reflects the significant difference in scale and financial health between the two organizations.

Key financial terms disclosed in the release include:

  • Share Issuance: Air Industries Group will issue approximately 112.5 million shares to Tenax members.
  • Valuation: The issuance is based on a “Debt Adjusted AIR Share Price” of approximately $3.44 per share.
  • Debt Profile: The combined entity is projected to carry a net debt of approximately $380 million at closing. This figure includes $80 million in debt recently incurred by Tenax to buy out its minority partner, Bain Capital, in January 2026.
  • Breakup Fee: A mutual termination fee of $1.25 million has been established should the deal fail under specific conditions, such as a breach of contract.

Strategic Rationale: Scale and Vertical Integration

The merger is positioned as a strategic move to create a vertically integrated aerospace platform. For Tenax Aerospace, headquartered in Ridgeland, Mississippi, the deal provides immediate access to public capital markets. This access is intended to fund fleet expansion and growth without the hurdles of a traditional Initial Public Offering (IPO). Tenax specializes in special mission aviation services, including aerial firefighting and intelligence gathering for U.S. government clients.

For Air Industries Group, based in Bay Shore, New York, the merger offers a financial lifeline. The company, a Tier 1 supplier of precision components for platforms like the F-35 and Black Hawk, has faced recent financial headwinds, including a net loss of approximately $1.3 million in 2025. By joining forces with Tenax, AIRI moves from a micro-cap component supplier to a subsidiary of a larger, profitable defense services provider.

Pro Forma Financial Outlook

The companies released preliminary pro forma financial projections for the combined entity, highlighting a stronger profile than AIRI could achieve alone:

  • Projected 2026 Revenue: Greater than $210 million.
  • Projected 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: Greater than $75 million.

Data from the announcement indicates that Tenax contributes the vast majority of this earning power, with AIRI contributing approximately $48 million in revenue and minimal EBITDA to the combined totals.

Leadership and Governance

Following the close of the transaction, the leadership structure will shift to reflect Tenax’s majority ownership. Tom Foley, the current Chairman of Tenax and NTC Group, will assume the role of Chairman of the combined company.

The Board of Directors will also be reconstituted to favor the acquirer. Tenax will select six or more directors, while the current Air Industries board will jointly select only two directors with Tenax. While specific CEO appointments were not detailed in the initial release, the governance structure suggests Tenax management will drive the strategic direction of the public entity.

AirPro News Analysis

This transaction represents a classic “backdoor listing” for Tenax Aerospace, allowing it to bypass the volatility and expense of a traditional IPO while securing a liquid currency (public stock) for future acquisitions. For Air Industries Group shareholders, the deal presents a stark reality: while they face massive dilution, retaining only 5% of the company, the alternative was likely continued financial distress given their recent performance and debt load.

The market’s muted reaction on the day of the announcement, with AIRI stock remaining flat at $3.19, likely reflects this trade-off. Investors appear to be weighing the benefits of survival and participation in a larger entity against the heavy debt load ($380 million) and the near-total dilution of current equity. The success of this merger will hinge on the combined company’s ability to service that debt while integrating a service-heavy business model with a manufacturing-heavy one.

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Photo Credit: Montage

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