Canada Considers Reducing F-35 Order in Favor of Saab Gripen Jets

This article summarizes reporting by La Presse.

Canada’s defense procurement strategy is undergoing a historic realignment. Following the recent selection of Saab’s GlobalEye surveillance aircraft, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government is reportedly preparing to overhaul its fighter jet modernization plan. According to a May 30, 2026, analysis published by the French-language daily La Presse, Ottawa is strongly considering a pivot toward a mixed fleet approach, significantly reducing its reliance on U.S.-made stealth fighters in favor of Swedish alternatives.

The proposed shift would see Canada scale back its planned acquisition of 88 Lockheed Martin F-35s to approximately 30 aircraft. To fill the resulting capability gap, the government is weighing the purchase of around 60 Saab Gripen E/F fighters. This potential procurement pivot represents a major geopolitical and industrial maneuver aimed at insulating Canada’s defense supply chains from U.S. political pressure while simultaneously revitalizing domestic aerospace manufacturing.

This development arrives against a backdrop of increasingly strained bilateral relations between Ottawa and Washington. With U.S. President Donald Trump imposing new tariffs on Canadian imports and making inflammatory remarks regarding Canadian sovereignty, PM Carney has publicly pledged to diversify the nation’s defense partnerships. The potential Gripen acquisition aligns closely with Carney’s February 2026 defense industrial strategy, which targets nearly C$500 billion in defense-related investments over the next decade and prioritizes domestic technology transfers.

The GlobalEye Precedent

Speculation regarding the Gripen fighter jets directly follows a landmark procurement decision announced just days prior. On May 27, 2026, at the CANSEC defense trade show in Ottawa, PM Carney confirmed that Canada had selected Saab for its Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) program.

According to industry reports, Canada is currently negotiating the purchase of up to six Saab GlobalEye aircraft in a deal valued at over C$5 billion. In making this selection, Ottawa explicitly bypassed established American options, including Boeing’s E-7 Wedgetail and L3Harris’s Aeris system.

The GlobalEye agreement sets a clear precedent for domestic industrial benefits. The system integrates Saab’s advanced radar technology onto the Bombardier Global 6500 business jet, which is manufactured in Toronto. As part of the agreement, Saab has committed to building at least one-third of its projected global fleet of GlobalEyes in Canada, a move expected to create over 3,000 local jobs.

Pivoting to a Mixed Fighter Fleet

Reducing the F-35 Order

In January 2023, the previous Canadian government finalized a C$19 billion agreement to purchase 88 F-35A fighters. However, to date, Canada has only signed binding contracts for the first 16 jets. In March 2025, PM Carney ordered a formal review of the F-35 acquisition to evaluate its overall value and the strategic implications of long-term reliance on U.S. supply chains.

According to the reporting by La Presse, the government is now looking to cap the F-35 order to retain core fifth-generation stealth capabilities necessary for specific NORAD and NATO operations, while utilizing the Gripen for the bulk of its fleet requirements.

“Ottawa is reportedly considering capping the F-35 order at 30 aircraft… and acquiring 60 Saab Gripen E/F fighters for the remainder.”

The Gripen’s Domestic Appeal

Saab has reportedly proposed a highly lucrative industrial package to secure the fighter contract. If selected, the Gripen jets would be assembled and maintained within Canada. Furthermore, Saab has suggested that Canadian facilities could manufacture Gripens not only for the Royal Canadian Air Force but also to supply the Ukrainian Air Force.

The economic impact of such a deal would be substantial. Industry estimates suggest the Gripen agreement could create up to 9,000 new jobs in Canada and consolidate the domestic aerospace supply chain, particularly within Quebec. Operationally, proponents of the Gripen emphasize its lower operating costs, higher availability rates, and its ability to operate from austere, short runways, a critical requirement for Canada’s remote Arctic bases.

Geopolitical Risks and Logistical Hurdles

While the economic benefits of the Gripen are clear, defense analysts warn that reneging on the 88-jet F-35 contract carries significant risks. Experts note that such a move will likely anger the U.S. government and Lockheed Martin. There is a high probability that Lockheed Martin could launch a massive lawsuit to recover lost funds, drawing parallels to the billion-dollar penalties Canada faced when it canceled the EH101 helicopter contract in the 1990s.

Furthermore, operating a mixed fleet presents distinct logistical challenges. Maintaining two separate logistical, training, and maintenance pipelines for the F-35 and the Gripen could increase long-term sustainment costs, complicating the operational readiness of the Royal Canadian Air Force.

AirPro News analysis

We note that the timing of this potential procurement shift is highly strategic. According to defense media and La Presse, the Canadian government has practically finalized its decision but is delaying the official announcement until after the U.S. midterm elections in November 2026. This calculated diplomatic maneuver is clearly designed to avoid escalating trade tensions with the Trump administration during a volatile election cycle. Ultimately, Ottawa is attempting to balance the objective superiority of the F-35’s sensor fusion and stealth capabilities against the sovereign control and economic windfalls offered by the Gripen. How Canada navigates the anticipated U.S. backlash will define its aerospace and defense posture for decades to come.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Canada considering reducing its F-35 order?

The Canadian government is seeking to reduce its reliance on U.S. defense supply chains amid strained bilateral relations. By capping the F-35 order at 30 jets and purchasing 60 Saab Gripens, Canada aims to boost domestic aerospace manufacturing, create local jobs, and gain greater sovereign control over aircraft maintenance and intellectual property.

What is the GlobalEye aircraft?

The GlobalEye is an Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft developed by Swedish defense firm Saab. Canada recently selected it over U.S. alternatives in a C$5 billion deal. The system mounts Saab radar technology onto Toronto-built Bombardier Global 6500 business jets.

When will the Canadian government announce its final fighter jet decision?

According to recent reporting, the official announcement regarding the F-35 reduction and the Gripen acquisition is expected to be delayed until after the U.S. midterm elections in November 2026 to avoid escalating trade disputes.

Sources

Sources: La Presse