This article is based on an official press release from Boeing and additional regional market research.

South Asia Aviation Forecast: 3,300 New Jets Needed by 2044

Airlines across India and South Asia are poised for a massive expansion over the next two decades, with a projected requirement for nearly 3,300 new airplanes by 2044. According to a new commercial market outlook released by Boeing, the region’s fleet is expected to quadruple in size to meet surging demand.

The forecast highlights South Asia as one of the world’s fastest-growing aviation markets, with passenger traffic expected to grow at an average of 7% annually, a rate that significantly outpaces the global average. While India remains the primary engine of this growth, neighboring nations including Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also accelerating fleet modernization efforts.

Domination of Single-Aisle Aircraft

The composition of this future fleet reflects the unique geography and economic demographics of the region. Boeing projects that single-aisle jets will account for approximately 90% of all deliveries over the 20-year period. These aircraft, such as the 737 MAX and A320neo families, are essential for serving the booming domestic networks and short-haul regional routes that connect Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities.

However, long-haul connectivity is also a strategic priority. The manufacturer notes that the widebody fleet in South Asia is expected to triple by 2044. This shift is driven by a desire among South Asian carriers to establish direct connections to North America, Europe, and Australia, reducing reliance on foreign hubs.

“The region’s fleet is projected to quadruple over the next 20 years… driven by a need for long-haul connectivity.”

, Boeing Commercial Market Outlook

Regional Developments Beyond India

While India’s massive orders from carriers like IndiGo and Air India dominate headlines, market research indicates significant activity in neighboring markets.

Bangladesh and Sri Lanka

According to regional industry reports, Biman Bangladesh Airlines has approved plans to acquire 14 new Boeing aircraft, including 787 Dreamliners and 737 MAX jets, to modernize its operations. This fleet expansion coincides with major infrastructure upgrades, such as the Third Terminal at Dhaka’s Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport, which is expected to boost annual capacity from 8 million to 20 million passengers by early 2026.

Similarly, Sri Lanka’s aviation sector is showing signs of strong recovery. Data suggests passenger movements grew by approximately 15% in 2025, with the country targeting over 10 million annual passengers as tourism rebounds.

Workforce and Sustainability Challenges

The rapid influx of aircraft creates an immediate demand for skilled labor. Boeing estimates that South Asia will require approximately 37,000 new pilots and 38,000 maintenance technicians to support the fleet expansion through 2044.

Sustainability remains a complex hurdle. While new aircraft offer immediate carbon reductions of 15-20% per seat compared to older models, the transition to Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) faces regulatory and economic barriers. High costs and a lack of local production infrastructure continue to complicate rapid SAF adoption for cost-sensitive carriers in the region.

AirPro News Analysis: The Infrastructure Gap

While the order books are full, the physical capacity to maintain these aircraft lags behind. Industry analysis suggests a growing “hangar deficit” in the region. India aims to have 200 operational airports by 2025, yet the development of Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) facilities has not kept pace with terminal construction.

We observe that without a commensurate increase in MRO capacity, airlines may be forced to send aircraft overseas for heavy maintenance. This increases operational costs and downtime, potentially offsetting some of the efficiency gains provided by the new generation of aircraft. The race in South Asia is no longer just about buying planes; it is about building the industrial ecosystem to keep them flying.

Sources

• Boeing