Commercial Aviation
Boeing Projects African Commercial Fleet to More Than Double by 2044
Boeing’s outlook sees Africa’s commercial fleet growing from 600 to 1,680 aircraft by 2044, requiring 74,000 new aviation professionals amid infrastructure and financial challenges.
This article is based on an official press release from Boeing.
Africa’s commercial aviation sector is poised for a transformative expansion over the next two decades. According to Boeing’s 2025 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), the continent’s commercial fleet is projected to more than double, growing from approximately 600 aircraft today to 1,680 by 2044. This surge is driven by a projected 6% annual increase in passenger traffic, a rate that significantly outpaces the global average.
The forecast highlights a robust demand for connectivity across the continent, fueled by a young, urbanizing population and an expanding middle class. To meet this demand, African carriers are expected to take delivery of more than 1,200 new airplanes over the forecast period. While 18% of these deliveries will replace older airframes, the vast majority, 82%, are intended to support fleet growth.
Shahab Matin, Boeing’s Managing Director of Commercial Marketing for the Middle East and Africa, emphasized the economic implications of this expansion in a statement accompanying the outlook.
“Aviation is a catalyst for Africa’s economic expansion… More efficient, versatile airplanes – paired with investments to make air travel more accessible – will unlock further growth.”
, Shahab Matin, Boeing Managing Director of Commercial Marketing for Middle East & Africa
A key finding in the 2025 CMO is the overwhelming demand for single-aisle jets, such as the Boeing 737 MAX. These aircraft are expected to account for 70% of the 1,200+ new deliveries. This trend signals a strategic shift among African airlines toward bolstering intra-African connectivity rather than focusing solely on long-haul routes to Europe or the Middle East.
While single-aisle aircraft will form the backbone of regional networks, widebody demand remains significant for major carriers like Ethiopian Airlines and Royal Air Maroc, which are modernizing their long-haul fleets. Additionally, the outlook values the commercial services market, covering maintenance, repair, and digital solutions, at $130 billion over the next 20 years.
The rapid influx of hardware presents a substantial challenge regarding human capital. Boeing estimates that to operate and maintain the expanding fleet, Africa will require 74,000 new aviation professionals between 2025 and 2044. The breakdown of this demand includes: Industry observers note that current training infrastructure may struggle to meet this demand, potentially creating a bottleneck for growth if not addressed through significant investment in education and Training facilities.
While Boeing’s forecast paints an optimistic picture of demand, the broader aviation landscape in Africa faces structural hurdles. According to industry research, infrastructure development is racing to catch up with fleet projections. Notable projects include Ethiopia’s new $6 billion Airports in Bishoftu, designed to handle 100 million passengers annually, and Rwanda’s $2 billion Bugesera International Airport, which is being developed with investment from Qatar Airways.
Despite the traffic growth, financial sustainability remains a critical issue. Data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) indicates that African carriers are expected to generate a modest $0.2 billion net profit in 2025, with razor-thin margins of approximately 1.1%. These margins are significantly lower than the global average, weighed down by high operating costs and regulatory challenges.
Blocked funds also remain a persistent issue. As of mid-2025, approximately $1.3 billion in airline revenues remains blocked globally, with 85% of that total tied up in African and Middle Eastern markets. While countries like Nigeria have made progress in clearing backlogs, significant amounts remain inaccessible in markets such as Mozambique and Algeria.
“If I was allowed to open up an airline in Africa right now, I wouldn’t. It’s complicated, complex and costly… The charges that I’ve seen in Africa today are sometimes 20 times more expensive than any other country.”
, Kamil Al-Awadhi, IATA Regional VP for Africa & Middle East
The Hardware-Software Gap
Boeing’s projection of 1,680 aircraft by 2044 highlights a massive opportunity, but the disparity between “hardware” (planes) and “software” (pilots, regulations, and profitability) is stark. While the demand for air travel is undeniable, growing at 6% annually, the ecosystem supporting that travel is fragile.
The requirement for 74,000 new professionals is perhaps the most daunting metric in the CMO. Without a coordinated, continent-wide strategy to train pilots and technicians, Airlines may find themselves with new fleets they cannot fly. Furthermore, the IATA data regarding 1.1% profit margins suggests that while volume is increasing, value capture remains elusive for local carriers. The success of the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) will be the deciding factor in whether these new fleets generate sustainable profits or merely increase capacity in a fragmented, high-cost market.
What is the projected growth rate for African air traffic? How many new planes will Africa need by 2044? What type of aircraft will be most popular? What are the major challenges facing this growth?
Boeing Forecast: African Commercial Fleet to More Than Double by 2044
The Dominance of Single-Aisle Commercial-Aircraft
The Human Capital Challenge: 74,000 New Professionals Needed
Infrastructure and Market Context
Financial Headwinds
AirPro News Analysis
Frequently Asked Questions
Boeing projects that passenger traffic in Africa will grow at an annual rate of 6% through 2044.
The region is expected to require over 1,200 new deliveries, bringing the total fleet size to 1,680 aircraft.
Single-aisle jets are expected to make up 70% of new deliveries to support domestic and regional route expansion.
Key challenges include a shortage of skilled aviation professionals (74,000 needed), blocked airline funds, high operating costs, and the need for massive infrastructure upgrades.
Sources
Photo Credit: Boeing