This article is based on an official report released by Frontier Economics and commissioned by Vertical Aerospace.

Report: Vertical Aerospace Projected to Generate £9 Billion in Revenue by 2035

A new economic impact study released in December 2025 suggests that the United Kingdom’s electric aviation sector is poised to become a significant contributor to the national economy. The report, titled “Next-Gen Aviation: Made in the UK” and conducted by Frontier Economics, uses Bristol-based Vertical Aerospace as a primary case study to demonstrate the financial viability of electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft.

Commissioned by Vertical Aerospace, the findings argue that zero-emission aviation is transitioning from a future ambition to a current economic driver. The data highlights substantial potential for high-value job creation and export-led growth, particularly within the South West of England’s historic aerospace cluster.

Economic Projections and Export Potential

The Frontier Economics report outlines aggressive growth targets for Vertical Aerospace over the next decade. According to the study’s projections, the company’s annual revenues could approach £9 billion by 2035. A significant portion of this revenue is expected to come from international markets, with the report estimating that approximately 90% of sales will be exports.

Beyond direct revenue, the report calculates the broader economic benefits for the UK:

• Gross Value Added (GVA): The company is forecast to contribute up to £3 billion annually to the UK economy by 2035.
• Tax Revenue: Annual tax payments to the UK Exchequer are projected to reach nearly £800 million by the same year.

Workforce and Regional Impact

The study emphasizes the role of “next-generation” aviation in sustaining the UK’s skilled manufacturing base. Vertical Aerospace currently employs 479 people. However, the report projects that direct employment at the company will rise to approximately 2,200 Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) roles by 2035.

Frontier Economics notes that these roles command a “wage premium,” with salaries at the company reportedly reaching up to twice the average for the region and the wider sector. This data is presented as evidence that the shift to green aviation supports high-quality employment rather than just volume.

Supply Chain Localization

In an effort to highlight the “Made in the UK” aspect of the industry, the report analyzes procurement data from 2022 to 2024. It finds that over 60% of Vertical Aerospace’s procurement was retained within the UK. This domestic spending reportedly supported roughly 720 additional jobs in the Bristol area and generated £21 million in local spending during that period.

“Vertical’s activities are well-aligned with the UK government’s priorities for industrial strategy, innovation, clean growth and defence… With sustained investment and supportive policy, Vertical could help shape the next generation of global aviation.”

, Andrew Leicester, Executive Director for Public Policy at Frontier Economics

Strategic Context: The “Jet Zero” Landscape

The release of this data comes as the UK aviation industry works to align with the government’s “Jet Zero” strategy, which mandates net-zero aviation emissions by 2050. This strategy relies on three pillars: system efficiencies, Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), and Zero-Emission Flight (ZEF).

The Frontier Economics report positions Vertical Aerospace within the ZEF pillar, arguing that new entrants are essential for modernizing regional hubs like the South West. This aligns with previous findings from the government-backed FlyZero project, which identified a “once-in-a-generation” opportunity for the UK to capture the global zero-emission aircraft market.

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The Push for Policy Support

While the projected figures of £9 billion in revenue and £3 billion in GVA are impressive, we note that they remain projections contingent on certification timelines and market adoption. The timing of this report is likely strategic. By quantifying the return on investment for the taxpayer, specifically the £800 million in potential tax revenue, Vertical Aerospace is building a case for continued or increased government support.

As the industry faces high capital costs associated with certification and scaling manufacturing, demonstrating a tangible “ripple effect” in the local supply chain is a critical lever for securing grants and favorable policy frameworks. The report effectively argues that supporting eVTOLs is not just an environmental decision, but a necessary industrial strategy to prevent the UK’s aerospace sector from stagnating.

Sources

Sources: Frontier Economics