EDA Weighs An-124 Upgrade to Close Europe Airlift Gap

The European Defence Agency (EDA) is evaluating a proposal to deeply modernize the Ukrainian-built Antonov An-124-100 “Ruslan” fleet to address a projected 50-aircraft shortfall in strategic heavy airlift capacity for NATO and European Union member states.

An 18-month, €20 million study conducted by the European System for Outsized Cargo Airlift (ESOCA) consortium concluded that Europe must either upgrade the existing An-124-100 Cargo-Aircraft or develop an entirely new strategic transport platform. The consortium presented its findings to the EDA on September 8, 2026.

Evaluating Europe’s strategic airlift options

The ESOCA consortium, led by Airbus Defence and Space and comprising 14 organizations across eight European countries, was tasked with identifying solutions for outsized military cargo transport. According to reporting by Air Data News, the consortium determined that Europe faces a critical capability gap in the 100-tonne payload class as existing fleets age.

The study presented two primary pathways. The first involves a comprehensive modernization of the An-124-100 fleet, which currently provides the backbone of European outsized airlift. The second option requires funding and developing a new European strategic transport aircraft to eventually replace the Boeing C-17 Globemaster III.

EU member states are scheduled to debate these findings and define operational requirements during the Strategic Transport Days in Brussels, Belgium, on October 21 and 22, 2026.

The 120-tonne payload requirement

European armed forces currently lack sufficient organic aircraft capable of independently transporting the largest military loads, such as main battle tanks and heavy helicopters. To bridge this gap, several NATO and EU countries rely on the Strategic Airlift International Solution (SALIS) program. This initiative leases An-124-100 aircraft from Antonov Logistics SALIS, based in Leipzig, Germany.

The An-124-100 offers an approximate payload capacity of 120 tonnes. Aviacionline reported that defense planners estimate a shortfall of up to 50 fixed-wing heavy transport aircraft for Europe’s most demanding military scenarios in the coming decade.

Previous efforts to adapt existing civilian platforms for this role have proven unsuccessful. Defense Express noted that a project to militarize the Airbus A300-600ST Beluga was closed in January 2025. The Beluga was deemed insufficient due to its lower payload capacity of 40 to 47 tons and the absence of a built-in cargo ramp, which is essential for rapid military loading and unloading.

AirPro News analysis

We view the ESOCA findings as a stark reminder of the limited off-the-shelf options available for strategic military airlift. Boeing ceased production of the C-17 Globemaster III in 2015, effectively closing the door on acquiring mature, western-built heavy transports. While some defense analysts have suggested the United States could reopen C-17 production under the NGAL program, European studies indicate the C-17 still cannot match the 120-tonne outsized cargo capability of the An-124.

Modernizing the An-124 fleet represents the most viable short-to-medium-term bridging solution. Upgrading these aircraft would buy European defense ministries crucial time through the 2030s to determine whether they possess the political will and financial resources to fund a clean-sheet strategic airlifter. Executing a deep modernization on the An-124 fleet will require complex engineering and supply chain solutions, particularly given the disruption to Ukraine’s domestic aerospace manufacturing base, but it remains the most pragmatic path to maintaining outsized cargo capabilities.

Sources: Air Data News, Aviacionline