Boeing CFO Forecasts Growth in Jet Deliveries and Cash Flow Recovery for 2026

Boeing CFO Projects Delivery Growth and Cash Flow Recovery in 2026

Boeing is projecting a financial and operational turnaround in 2026, with Chief Financial Officer Jay Malave outlining expectations for increased jet deliveries and a return to positive free cash flow. Speaking at the UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference on December 2, 2025, Malave provided a detailed update on the manufacturers production stability and financial outlook.

According to reporting by Reuters, the company anticipates higher delivery volumes for both its 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner programs in 2026 compared to current year levels. While the executive noted that November 2025 deliveries were “a little light” due to holiday schedules, the broader trajectory suggests a stabilization of factory output following a turbulent period for the aerospace giant.

Production Rates and Delivery Targets

The core of Boeing’s recovery plan rests on its ability to ramp up production rates for its best-selling aircraft. Malave confirmed that the company is currently stabilizing 737 MAX production at approximately 38 jets per month. The manufacturer is now “loading” its operations to reach a target rate of 42 jets per month, prioritizing stability over speed during this ramp-up phase.

787 Dreamliner Progress

In the wide-body segment, the 787 Dreamliner program is reportedly stabilizing at a rate of seven jets per month. Malave indicated that Boeing aims to increase this to eight per month by the end of 2025, with a further goal of reaching 10 per month in 2026.

Certification Timelines

Regarding future variants, the CFO provided an updated timeline for the 737 MAX 10. Certification for the largest variant of the MAX family is now targeted for late 2026. This timeline is critical as Boeing seeks to compete more effectively in the high-capacity narrow-body market.

“When you now fast forward to 2026, we’re going to be increasing our deliveries.”

, Jay Malave, Boeing CFO (via Reuters)

Financial Outlook: Cash Flow and Margins

Boeing’s financial guidance for 2025 and 2026 has shifted, driven largely by the timing of legal liabilities. Malave stated that the company now expects a free cash flow outflow of approximately $2 billion for 2025. This represents an improvement from the previously guided $2.5 billion outflow.

However, as Reuters reports, this improvement is primarily technical rather than operational. A significant Department of Justice (DOJ) penalty payment, originally expected to impact the 2025 books, has slipped into 2026. Consequently, while 2025 looks slightly better on paper, the liability remains.

Looking ahead to 2026, Boeing projects a return to positive free cash flow in the “low single-digit” billions range. Malave reiterated the company’s long-term ambition to generate $10 billion in annual free cash flow, though he acknowledged that the company is “not there yet.”

Defense and Acquisition Updates

The Defense, Space & Security unit, which has historically struggled with fixed-price contract overruns, is expected to generate high single-digit margins, signaling potential stabilization. Additionally, Malave confirmed that Boeing still intends to close its acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems by the end of 2025, a strategic move intended to improve supply chain quality and integration.

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The “Cash Flow Shuffle”

While the reduction in the projected 2025 cash outflow from $2.5 billion to $2 billion may appear positive, investors should view this with caution. The improvement is largely attributable to the deferral of the DOJ penalty payment into 2026 rather than a sudden spike in operational efficiency. The true test of Boeing’s recovery will be its ability to generate organic cash from operations in 2026, independent of legal payment timings.

Managing Expectations

CFO Jay Malave’s characterization of November deliveries as “a little light” appears to be a proactive effort to manage market expectations before official numbers are released. By attributing the dip to the Thanksgiving holiday schedule, Boeing is attempting to separate temporary calendar impacts from systemic production issues. However, with the 737 MAX 10 certification now pushed to late 2026, the pressure is on the existing MAX variants to carry the revenue load for another full year.

Frequently Asked Questions

When does Boeing expect to certify the 737 MAX 10?
Boeing is currently targeting late 2026 for the certification of the 737 MAX 10.

What is the current production rate for the 737 MAX?
Production is stabilizing at roughly 38 jets per month, with a target to reach 42 jets per month.

Why did the 2025 cash flow projection improve?
The projected outflow improved to ~$2 billion largely because a DOJ penalty payment expected in 2025 has been delayed until 2026.

Sources

• Reuters