Airbus Forecasts Aviation Aftermarket Growth to 311 Billion by 2044

Airbus Global Services Forecast 2025-2044: Navigating the Future of Aviation Aftermarket

The aviation industry stands on the cusp of significant transformation, driven by evolving passenger demand, rapid technological advancements, and the need for sustainable operations. The Airbus Global Services Forecast (GSF) 2025-2044 offers a comprehensive outlook on the future of aviation aftermarket services, highlighting the sector’s anticipated growth and the key factors shaping its trajectory.

As the global commercial aircraft fleet expands and passenger numbers are set to double, aftermarket services, ranging from maintenance to digital solutions, are poised to play a pivotal role in supporting airline operations and ensuring safety, efficiency, and profitability. The GSF not only quantifies this growth but also categorizes it across five strategic pillars, offering industry stakeholders a roadmap for the coming two decades.

This analysis breaks down the GSF’s major projections, explores the drivers behind the burgeoning aviation services market, and examines the implications for airlines, maintenance providers, and the broader aerospace ecosystem.

Growth Projections and Market Dynamics

According to the Airbus Global Services Forecast, the aviation aftermarket services sector is expected to nearly double in value by 2044, reaching an estimated US$311 billion. This growth is underpinned by a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% from 2025 to 2044, with a notable 10% year-over-year increase in demand anticipated in 2025 alone.

The expansion of the global commercial aircraft fleet is a primary driver of this surge. By 2044, the fleet is expected to grow to over 49,000 aircraft, nearly double its current size. This expansion is fueled by both the replacement of aging aircraft, 44% of new deliveries are expected to replace older models, and increased utilization rates as airlines respond to rebounding passenger traffic and evolving market needs.

Passenger numbers are forecasted to double, reaching 10 billion by 2044. This escalation in demand for air travel necessitates robust support in areas such as maintenance, crew training, digitalization, and operational efficiency. The services market, valued at US$159 billion in 2024, is thus set for significant expansion across all key segments.

“The aviation aftermarket is projected to reach US$311 billion by 2044, nearly doubling in value over two decades, as global passenger traffic and aircraft fleets expand.”

Key Market Drivers

Several factors are converging to drive the growth of aviation aftermarket services. The modernization of fleets is a significant catalyst, with airlines investing in newer, more efficient aircraft to meet regulatory requirements, reduce emissions, and enhance passenger experience. This shift not only increases the demand for maintenance and upgrades but also for advanced digital solutions that optimize operations.

Increased aircraft utilization is another critical factor. As airlines maximize fleet deployment to capture rising passenger demand, the need for timely and effective maintenance, training, and operational support becomes more pronounced. This includes both scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, as well as real-time monitoring and predictive analytics enabled by digital technologies.

Finally, the evolving regulatory landscape and the push for sustainability are prompting airlines to invest in modifications and upgrades that improve fuel efficiency, reduce environmental impact, and ensure compliance with international standards.

The Five Pillars of Aviation Support

To provide a clear framework for understanding the aftermarket’s evolution, Airbus categorizes the services market into five main pillars: Off-Wing Maintenance, On-Wing Maintenance, Modifications & Upgrades, Digital & Connectivity, and Training. Each pillar addresses distinct yet interconnected aspects of aircraft support and operational excellence.

Off-Wing Maintenance

Off-Wing Maintenance remains the largest segment of the aviation aftermarket. It encompasses essential services such as major component repairs, overhauls, and the supply of spare parts. This segment is projected to grow from US$107 billion in 2025 to US$218 billion by 2044, with material supply accounting for 85% of its value.

The longevity and reliability of aircraft are directly tied to the quality and availability of off-wing maintenance services. As fleets age and expand, the demand for high-quality parts and comprehensive overhaul solutions will continue to rise. This segment is fundamental to maintaining aircraft value and ensuring operational readiness over the long term.

Industry stakeholders are increasingly focusing on supply chain resilience, cost optimization, and leveraging partnerships with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to meet the growing needs of airlines worldwide.

On-Wing Maintenance

On-Wing Maintenance, valued at US$21 billion in 2025 and forecast to reach US$34 billion by 2044, covers the spectrum of day-to-day line and base maintenance activities. These services are critical for ensuring high fleet availability and reliability, enabling airlines to maintain tight schedules and minimize operational disruptions.

The increasing complexity of modern aircraft, coupled with the need for rapid turnaround times, has elevated the importance of on-wing maintenance. Airlines are investing in advanced diagnostic tools, mobile maintenance solutions, and digital platforms to streamline these processes and enhance efficiency.

As the global fleet grows and utilization rates climb, the ability to perform timely and effective on-wing maintenance will be a key differentiator for airlines seeking to maintain a competitive edge.

Modifications & Upgrades

This sector, projected to be worth US$17 billion by 2044 (up from US$12 billion in 2025), focuses on cabin retrofits, systems upgrades, and enhancements designed to improve passenger experience, safety, and fuel efficiency. Airlines are increasingly turning to modifications and upgrades to differentiate their offerings and comply with evolving regulatory requirements.

Cabin retrofits, for instance, enable airlines to introduce new seating configurations, in-flight entertainment systems, and connectivity solutions, catering to changing passenger expectations. Systems upgrades, such as avionics enhancements and fuel-saving modifications, contribute to operational efficiency and environmental sustainability.

The dynamic nature of this segment reflects the industry’s commitment to continuous improvement and adaptation in response to technological innovation and market trends.

Digital & Connectivity

Digital & Connectivity is the fastest-growing pillar, expected to nearly triple in value from US$9 billion in 2025 to US$26 billion by 2044. The adoption of digital solutions, ranging from predictive maintenance and real-time monitoring to connected aircraft systems, offers significant potential for operational efficiencies.

Airbus projects that digital technologies could save airlines up to US$83 billion by 2044. The number of digitally connected aircraft is anticipated to increase from 11,000 to over 40,000 during this period, reflecting the industry’s embrace of data-driven decision-making and automation.

These advancements are not only enhancing safety and reliability but also enabling airlines to optimize costs, improve customer service, and respond proactively to maintenance and operational issues.

“The number of digitally connected aircraft is expected to rise from 11,000 to over 40,000 by 2044, underscoring the transformative impact of digitalization on aviation operations.”

Training

The human element remains central to aviation’s future. The training segment is projected to grow from US$10 billion in 2025 to US$17 billion by 2044, driven by the need to recruit and train 2.35 million new professionals, including 633,000 pilots, 705,000 technicians, and 1.01 million cabin crew members.

This demand reflects both the expansion of the global fleet and the replacement of an aging workforce, particularly in mature markets. Training providers face the dual challenge of scaling capacity to meet rising demand and incorporating new technologies and methodologies to ensure effective learning outcomes.

Emerging economies are expected to play a significant role in meeting this need, presenting both opportunities and challenges for the global aviation training ecosystem.

Expanding Ecosystem and Regional Trends

Beyond the five core pillars, Airbus identifies two additional areas of growing customer demand: maintenance operations support and ground operations. Maintenance operations support is projected to be worth US$100 billion by 2044, while ground operations are expected to reach US$74 billion.

These segments are integral to the broader aviation services ecosystem, supporting efficient fleet management, turnaround times, and overall operational performance. As airlines seek to optimize every aspect of their operations, the demand for comprehensive and integrated support solutions will continue to grow.

Geographically, the GSF highlights a pronounced shift in growth towards the east. By 2044, the Asia-Pacific, China, and South Asia regions are expected to account for approximately 45% of total services demand. South Asia is projected to experience the highest growth rate, while Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) will represent the largest cumulative demand over the forecast period. The three largest services markets by 2044 are anticipated to be China, Europe & CIS, and North America.

“By 2044, Asia-Pacific, China, and South Asia will represent nearly half of the global demand for aviation services, signaling a significant shift in the industry’s geographic center of gravity.”

Conclusion: Charting a Course for the Next Two Decades

The Airbus Global Services Forecast 2025-2044 paints a picture of robust growth and transformation for the aviation aftermarket. As fleets expand and passenger numbers rise, the demand for high-quality, efficient, and innovative services will intensify across all segments of the market.

Industry stakeholders, airlines, maintenance providers, OEMs, and training institutions, must adapt to new realities, leveraging digital technologies, investing in workforce development, and building resilient supply chains. The next two decades will be defined by collaboration, innovation, and a relentless focus on operational excellence as aviation navigates an era of unprecedented change.

FAQ

What is the Airbus Global Services Forecast (GSF)?
The GSF is an industry report published by Airbus that projects the growth and trends of the aviation aftermarket services sector over a 20-year period.

How large is the aviation aftermarket expected to be by 2044?
The aviation aftermarket is projected to reach a value of US$311 billion by 2044, nearly doubling its current size.

Which regions will drive the most growth in aviation services?
Asia-Pacific, China, and South Asia are expected to account for approximately 45% of global services demand by 2044.

What are the main segments of the aviation aftermarket?
The five main pillars are Off-Wing Maintenance, On-Wing Maintenance, Modifications & Upgrades, Digital & Connectivity, and Training.

How will digitalization impact the aviation aftermarket?
Digital technologies are expected to deliver significant operational efficiencies, with the number of digitally connected aircraft projected to rise from 11,000 to over 40,000 by 2044.

Sources

• Airbus Global Services Forecast 2025-2044