Germany’s F-35 Expansion Debate and FCAS Defense Tensions

Germany’s F-35 Procurement Strategy Amidst Franco-German Defense Tensions

Germany’s military modernization efforts have recently come under scrutiny following conflicting reports about an expansion of its F-35 Lightning II fleet. According to Politico and Reuters, Germany is considering the purchase of 15 additional F-35 fighter jets, which would bring its total planned fleet to 50. However, this claim has been publicly denied by the German Defense Ministry, creating uncertainty around the country’s defense procurement strategy.

The debate over the potential acquisition of more F-35s is unfolding within a broader context of shifting European defense priorities, increased NATO expectations, and tensions within the Franco-German Future Combat Air System (FCAS) project. As Germany seeks to balance its transatlantic commitments with aspirations for European defense autonomy, the outcome of these procurement decisions may significantly shape the continent’s strategic posture for decades to come.

This article explores the background of Germany’s F-35 program, the current state of procurement, the implications of the FCAS dispute, and the broader geopolitical and strategic considerations that influence this pivotal moment in European defense policy.

Germany’s Initial F-35 Acquisition and Strategic Rationale

Germany announced in 2022 its decision to purchase 35 F-35A fighter jets to replace its aging fleet of Panavia Tornado aircraft. The Tornado fleet, which has been in service since the 1980s, is increasingly costly to maintain and technologically outdated. The F-35A, a fifth-generation multirole fighter developed by Lockheed Martin, was selected for its advanced stealth, sensor fusion, and nuclear certification capabilities, essential for fulfilling Germany’s NATO obligations, particularly in nuclear sharing.

The initial procurement was estimated at around $10 billion, encompassing aircraft, infrastructure, training, and support systems. Deliveries are scheduled to begin in 2026, with the jets initially based in the United States for training before being stationed at Büchel Air Base in Germany by 2027. The full replacement of the Tornado fleet is expected by 2030, aligning with Germany’s broader defense modernization timeline.

Germany’s choice of the F-35 over European alternatives such as the Eurofighter Typhoon or the French Rafale was significant. While those platforms offered interoperability benefits within Europe, they lacked nuclear certification and some of the advanced capabilities of the F-35. This decision also signaled a pragmatic alignment with NATO and U.S. defense architecture, despite ongoing commitments to the FCAS sixth-generation fighter project with France and Spain.

Capabilities and Cost Considerations

The F-35A variant purchased by Germany is designed for conventional takeoff and landing and is compatible with the B61-12 nuclear gravity bomb, a key requirement for NATO nuclear sharing missions. Its advanced avionics, including the AN/APG-81 AESA radar and Electro-Optical Targeting System, provide superior situational awareness and engagement capabilities. These features were central to Germany’s procurement rationale, especially given the growing emphasis on interoperability and deterrence within NATO.

While the flyaway cost of an F-35A is approximately $82.5 million (based on Lot 15–17 production), the total cost per unit, including support and infrastructure, rises significantly, estimated at around $285 million. These figures have raised concerns within Germany about long-term affordability, especially as the country considers further defense spending increases to meet NATO’s evolving capability targets.

Lockheed Martin has also warned that ongoing supply chain pressures and reduced U.S. procurement may drive up costs for international partners. The Pentagon’s 2026 budget proposal includes a 45% cut in F-35A purchases for the U.S. Air Force, which could affect economies of scale and increase per-unit costs for allies like Germany.

“Germany faces a capability gap that only the F-35 can immediately fill. FCAS remains a decade from operational service, while Russian threats demand fifth-generation capabilities now.” — Justin Bronk, RUSI

Conflicting Reports and Official Denials

In July 2025, Politico reported that Germany was planning to buy 15 additional F-35s, citing multiple unnamed government sources. This would increase the total fleet from 35 to 50 aircraft. Several other media outlets, including Reuters and the Jerusalem Post, echoed these reports. The additional jets were reportedly being considered to meet revised NATO force targets and to address concerns that the initial order might not be sufficient for Germany’s strategic needs.

However, the German Defense Ministry quickly denied these claims. A spokesperson stated unequivocally that there were “no plans to procure further F-35s beyond the 35 already contractually agreed.” This contradiction has fueled speculation about internal deliberations within the German government and defense establishment. Some analysts suggest that while no formal decision has been made, discussions about expanding the fleet may still be ongoing behind closed doors.

A Bundeswehr source noted that the figure of 15 additional jets had been considered in the past but might no longer suffice given NATO’s updated capability expectations. This comment suggests that the reported number could be a placeholder in broader strategic planning rather than a finalized procurement decision.

Timeline and Deployment

Despite the uncertainty surrounding additional purchases, the timeline for the initial 35 F-35s remains unchanged. The first jets are expected to arrive in 2026 for training purposes at a U.S. base, followed by deployment to Germany in 2027. Full operational capability is targeted by 2030, in line with the planned retirement of the Tornado fleet.

The F-35s will be stationed at Büchel Air Base, which currently hosts U.S. nuclear weapons. The base’s infrastructure is being upgraded to accommodate the new aircraft and ensure compliance with NATO nuclear sharing protocols.

This timeline underscores the urgency of Germany’s modernization efforts, particularly as the security environment in Europe becomes increasingly volatile following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent recalibration of NATO’s defense posture.

The FCAS Dispute and Strategic Divergence

The reported F-35 expansion comes amid growing tensions within the FCAS project, a joint initiative between France, Germany, and Spain to develop a sixth-generation fighter by the 2040s. France has reportedly demanded an 80% share of the project’s industrial work, a move that Germany views as inconsistent with previous agreements on equal participation. This dispute has stalled the program’s progress and raised questions about its long-term viability.

German officials, including Chancellor Friedrich Merz, have acknowledged the deadlock and emphasized the need for a balanced partnership. Industry sources warn that unless the dispute is resolved soon, the project may miss critical development milestones, including the transition to the next phase scheduled for late 2025.

The FCAS impasse reflects broader strategic differences between France and Germany. While France prioritizes industrial sovereignty and centralized control, Germany seeks a more collaborative model that aligns with its broader European integration goals. The uncertainty surrounding FCAS has increased the appeal of the F-35 as a near-term solution to Germany’s capability gaps.

“Over-reliance on U.S. systems undermines European strategic autonomy and creates vulnerability to political pressure, as demonstrated by U.S. weapons restrictions in Ukraine.” — Agnieszka Brugger, Bundestag Defense Committee

Conclusion

Germany’s evolving defense procurement strategy reflects the complex interplay between immediate security needs, alliance commitments, and long-term aspirations for European defense autonomy. While the German Defense Ministry has denied plans to acquire additional F-35s, the consistency of media reports and strategic context suggest that internal discussions are likely ongoing. The final decision will have far-reaching implications for Germany’s military posture, its role in NATO, and the future of European defense integration.

As Berlin navigates these competing priorities, its choices will shape the trajectory of transatlantic defense cooperation and determine whether Europe can achieve greater strategic autonomy or remains reliant on U.S. defense capabilities. The coming months, including high-level meetings with French and U.S. counterparts, may offer further clarity on Germany’s path forward.

FAQ

Is Germany officially buying more F-35s?
No. The German Defense Ministry has publicly denied plans to purchase additional F-35s beyond the 35 already contracted.

Why is Germany buying the F-35 instead of European jets?
The F-35 is the only NATO-certified aircraft capable of carrying U.S. nuclear weapons, a key requirement for Germany’s NATO obligations. It also offers advanced stealth and sensor capabilities.

What is the FCAS project?
The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) is a joint Franco-German-Spanish initiative to develop a sixth-generation fighter aircraft. The project has been delayed due to disagreements over workshare and governance.

Sources

• Reuters
• Politico
• Jerusalem Post
• Defense News
• Lockheed Martin